Happy Valley · 2023-12-13 · 11:20
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-12-13 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SUPER CONTENTED, ridden by K De Melo and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with REGENCY HAPPY STAR second and MEDIC ELITE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.2 favourite REGENCY HAPPY STAR finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SUPER CONTENTED Closed strongly TT 1.41.15 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K De Melo · C Fownes | K De Melo | C Fownes | 3 | 11.0 | N |
| 2 | 6 | REGENCY HAPPY STAR Closed strongly CP/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 4 | 5.2 | N |
| 3 | 9 | MEDIC ELITE Closed strongly PC/TT C L Chau · P C Ng | C L Chau | P C Ng | 9 | 5.9 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | MILLENNIUM FALCON TT K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | 1 | 8.8 | 3 |
| 5 | 1 | CORDYCEPS ONE Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 8 | 7.8 | 3 |
| 6 | 3 | GET THE MONIES Closed strongly B-/TT1 L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 10 | 21.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | BROTHER PEARL Closed strongly B Avdulla · C H Yip | B Avdulla | C H Yip | 12 | 16.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 11 | CHIRON Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 6 | 14.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 10 | VIVA A LA P/TT A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 2 | 5.8 | 7 |
| 10 | 2 | CHARMANDER Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · J Richards | C Y Ho | J Richards | 11 | 7.2 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 4 | AMAZING TRAVIS TT L Hewitson · W Y So | L Hewitson | W Y So | 5 | 33.0 | 11 |
| 12 | 12 | PERFECT ROCK Led early B2 H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 7 | 81.0 | 15-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | VIVA A LA | 17.6% | 5.67 | 9 |
| 2 | 9 | MEDIC ELITE | 13.4% | 7.44 | 3 |
| 3 | 6 | REGENCY HAPPY STAR | 11.4% | 8.80 | 2 |
| 4 | 7 | MILLENNIUM FALCON | 11.3% | 8.86 | 4 |
| 5 | 2 | CHARMANDER | 10.7% | 9.31 | 10 |
| 6 | 1 | CORDYCEPS ONE | 9.0% | 11.05 | 5 |
| 7 | 3 | GET THE MONIES | 6.5% | 15.44 | 6 |
| 8 | 11 | CHIRON | 5.7% | 17.43 | 8 |
| 9 | 8 | BROTHER PEARL | 5.0% | 20.14 | 7 |
| 10 | 4 | AMAZING TRAVIS | 4.6% | 21.73 | 11 |
| 11 | 5 | SUPER CONTENTED | 2.8% | 35.39 | 1 |
| 12 | 12 | PERFECT ROCK | 1.9% | 53.33 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 116.5
PLACE
5 35
6 20
9 21.5
QUINELLA
5,6 437
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 148
5,9 105
6,9 77
FORECAST
5,6 912
TIERCE
5,6,9 7,450
TRIO
5,6,9 1,010
FIRST 4
5,6,7,9 1,484
QUARTET
5,6,9,7 38,132
All pools (1 more)
1ST DOUBLE
11/5 1,481
11/6 93.5