Happy Valley · 2023-12-13 · 12:45
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-12-13 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. EXPLOSIVE WITNESS, ridden by J McDonald and trained by C Fownes, won by 2-1/4, with FORTUNE WARRIOR second and HAPPY UNITED third. The 3.4 favourite ATOMIC ENERGY finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS SR/XB 0.57.04 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · C Fownes | J McDonald | C Fownes | 7 | 8.7 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 10 | FORTUNE WARRIOR CP K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 4 | 7.7 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 9 | HAPPY UNITED P/TT C Y Ho · J Richards | C Y Ho | J Richards | 5 | 3.6 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | HARMONY N BLESSED B/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 3 | 11.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 6 | ATOMIC ENERGY TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 1 | 3.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | CHEVAL VALIANT B/H/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte | K De Melo | D J Whyte | 6 | 5.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 3 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 9 | 18.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | SUGAR BALL CP1/H1/TT1 M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 2 | 47.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 8 | MUST GO A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 8 | 28.0 | 11-1/4 |
| — | 2 | HUMBLE STAR Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | HAPPY UNITED | 23.6% | 4.24 | 3 |
| 2 | 6 | ATOMIC ENERGY | 21.2% | 4.72 | 5 |
| 3 | 10 | FORTUNE WARRIOR | 12.5% | 8.01 | 2 |
| 4 | 1 | HARMONY N BLESSED | 10.0% | 10.05 | 4 |
| 5 | 5 | CHEVAL VALIANT | 9.9% | 10.07 | 6 |
| 6 | 4 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS | 8.8% | 11.30 | 1 |
| 7 | 3 | CALIFORNIA DEEPLY | 5.6% | 17.81 | 7 |
| 8 | 7 | SUGAR BALL | 4.9% | 20.26 | 8 |
| 9 | 8 | MUST GO | 3.5% | 28.72 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 87
PLACE
4 22.5
9 14.5
10 21.5
QUINELLA
4,10 283
QUINELLA PLACE
4,9 46.5
4,10 87
9,10 47
FORECAST
4,10 610
TIERCE
4,10,9 1,929
TRIO
4,9,10 255
FIRST 4
1,4,9,10 495
QUARTET
4,10,9,1 14,927
All pools (3 more)
1ST TREBLE
3/3/4 23,113
3/3/10 5,849
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
3,6,7/4,9,10 69,349
4TH DOUBLE
3/4 714
3/10 235