Happy Valley · 2023-12-13 · 19:41
Race 3
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | SAMARKAND Closed strongly CP/TT 1.50.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · D A Hayes | C L Chau | D A Hayes | 10 | 13.0 | SH |
| 2 | 0 | HAPPY ANGEL Closed strongly B K De Melo · P C Ng | K De Melo | P C Ng | 4 | 3.5 | SH |
| 3 | 0 | FOREVER GLORIOUS Led early B/TT Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 9 | 7.3 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | PEGASUS GENERAL V K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 1 | 7.8 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | PALACE PAL V A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 5 | 8.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | SERANGOON Closed strongly CP/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 3 | 41.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | RUNNING AHEAD CP- L Hewitson · T P Yung | L Hewitson | T P Yung | 2 | 73.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 0 | FORTUNE PRESIDENT Closed strongly M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 11 | 54.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 0 | READY PLAYER ONE V/XB/TT C Y Ho · J Richards | C Y Ho | J Richards | 6 | 10.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 0 | SPLENDID STAR TT K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 8 | 5.1 | 5 |
| 11 | 0 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE TT J McDonald · C Fownes | J McDonald | C Fownes | 7 | 9.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 0 | VINCY SR/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 12 | 61.0 | 7-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-12-13 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. SAMARKAND, ridden by C L Chau and trained by D A Hayes, won by SH, with HAPPY ANGEL second and FOREVER GLORIOUS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite HAPPY ANGEL finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | HAPPY ANGEL | 16.4% | 6.10 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | FOREVER GLORIOUS | 15.4% | 6.51 | 3 |
| 3 | 0 | SPLENDID STAR | 14.5% | 6.89 | 10 |
| 4 | 0 | PALACE PAL | 10.7% | 9.38 | 5 |
| 5 | 0 | READY PLAYER ONE | 9.3% | 10.70 | 9 |
| 6 | 0 | PEGASUS GENERAL | 8.0% | 12.47 | 4 |
| 7 | 0 | SAMARKAND | 7.5% | 13.40 | 1 |
| 8 | 0 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE | 5.9% | 16.91 | 11 |
| 9 | 0 | VINCY | 3.5% | 28.37 | 12 |
| 10 | 0 | RUNNING AHEAD | 3.2% | 31.39 | 7 |
| 11 | 0 | FORTUNE PRESIDENT | 3.0% | 33.81 | 8 |
| 12 | 0 | SERANGOON | 2.6% | 37.77 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 137.5
PLACE
3 38
7 30
9 15
QUINELLA
3,9 229.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 187.5
3,9 81.5
7,9 69.5
FORECAST
3,9 585
TIERCE
3,9,7 4,734
TRIO
3,7,9 743
FIRST 4
2,3,7,9 1,296
QUARTET
3,9,7,2 34,215
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
5,6,9/3,7,9 182,526
2ND DOUBLE
5/3 3,478
5/9 140.5