Happy Valley · 2023-12-13 · 12:15
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-12-13 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. TOGEPI, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by W K Mo, won by SH, with KING ECCELLENTE second and RUN RUN TIMING third. The 3.1 favourite BEAUTY DESTINY finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | TOGEPI B/TT 1.10.50 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · W K Mo | L Ferraris | W K Mo | 10 | 13.0 | SH |
| 2 | 7 | KING ECCELLENTE SR/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 12 | 16.0 | SH |
| 3 | 6 | RUN RUN TIMING TT J McDonald · C H Yip | J McDonald | C H Yip | 4 | 3.6 | N |
| 4 | 9 | HAPPY SOUL CP/TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 7 | 22.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | JOY COMING CP/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 8 | 10.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | GOLDEN LUCK XB/TT B Avdulla · K L Man | B Avdulla | K L Man | 6 | 8.7 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | BEAUTY DESTINY CP1/TT1 Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 1 | 3.1 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 12 | COLONEL V A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 5 | 11.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 10 | COURIER MAGIC H/P1/TT K De Melo · J Richards | K De Melo | J Richards | 9 | 97.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 2 | SHINING FORTUNE B-/XB/P1 A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 2 | 14.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 11 | ACE TALENT H/PC/TT L Hewitson · C Fownes | L Hewitson | C Fownes | 11 | 26.0 | 9 |
| 12 | 4 | SUPER BONUS B A Hamelin · P C Ng | A Hamelin | P C Ng | 3 | 37.0 | 13-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | JOY COMING | 16.4% | 6.12 | 5 |
| 2 | 5 | GOLDEN LUCK | 16.0% | 6.26 | 6 |
| 3 | 8 | BEAUTY DESTINY | 13.5% | 7.41 | 7 |
| 4 | 6 | RUN RUN TIMING | 12.5% | 8.00 | 3 |
| 5 | 12 | COLONEL | 9.9% | 10.11 | 8 |
| 6 | 2 | SHINING FORTUNE | 8.4% | 11.84 | 10 |
| 7 | 7 | KING ECCELLENTE | 5.8% | 17.19 | 2 |
| 8 | 9 | HAPPY SOUL | 5.7% | 17.44 | 4 |
| 9 | 3 | TOGEPI | 4.9% | 20.45 | 1 |
| 10 | 11 | ACE TALENT | 3.1% | 32.11 | 11 |
| 11 | 4 | SUPER BONUS | 2.7% | 37.64 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | COURIER MAGIC | 1.1% | 87.79 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 139.5
PLACE
3 36.5
6 15
7 40.5
QUINELLA
3,7 1,105
QUINELLA PLACE
3,6 103
3,7 308
6,7 120
FORECAST
3,7 1,731
TIERCE
3,7,6 10,228
TRIO
3,6,7 1,303
FIRST 4
3,6,7,9 4,076
QUARTET
3,7,6,9 134,936
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
3/3 2,013.5
3/7 832.5