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Happy Valley · 2023-12-13 · 13:55

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2023-12-13 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. DRAGON STAR, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P C Ng, won by 1, with STRONGEST BOY second and WIN WIN FIGHTER third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.41.20
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 DRAGON STAR Wire to wire V/XB 1.41.20 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P C Ng 6 2.3 1
2 9 STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 12 6.8 1
3 7 WIN WIN FIGHTER Closed strongly B C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 12.0 1-1/4
4 2 BEATO B/TT J McDonald · A S Cruz 1 5.5 1-1/2
5 10 STORMTROUPER B-/E/XB L Hewitson · C H Yip 4 24.0 2-1/4
6 11 RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly B/XB M Chadwick · M Newnham 7 9.8 2-1/4
7 5 AROMATICA TT K C Leung · W Y So 3 153.0 2-3/4
8 3 OUR LUCKY GLORY SR/TT K De Melo · J Richards 8 17.0 3-3/4
9 4 SMART FIGHTER TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu 11 12.0 3-3/4
10 1 UP AND UP TT Y L Chung · C S Shum 10 37.0 4
11 6 GO HERO A Badel · Y S Tsui 9 24.0 10
12 12 HAPPY HUNK H/TT M L Yeung · K L Man 2 72.0 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DRAGON STAR2. STRONGEST BOY+1L3. WIN WIN FIGHTER+1.25L4. BEATO+1.5L5. STORMTROUPER+2.25L6. RIGHT HONOURABLE+2.25L7. AROMATICA+2.75L8. OUR LUCKY GLORY+3.75L9. SMART FIGHTER+3.75L10. UP AND UP+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick BEATO (22.9%) finished 4th — the winner DRAGON STAR was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 BEATO 22.9% 4.37 4
2 8 DRAGON STAR 18.6% 5.38 1
3 9 STRONGEST BOY 16.0% 6.26 2
4 7 WIN WIN FIGHTER 10.5% 9.52 3
5 4 SMART FIGHTER 9.7% 10.36 9
6 11 RIGHT HONOURABLE 5.2% 19.33 6
7 6 GO HERO 4.8% 20.66 11
8 3 OUR LUCKY GLORY 4.7% 21.29 8
9 10 STORMTROUPER 4.3% 23.14 5
10 1 UP AND UP 1.5% 66.92 10
11 12 HAPPY HUNK 1.3% 77.40 12
12 5 AROMATICA 0.6% 180.48 7
BEATODRAGON STAR — wonSTRONGEST BOYWIN WIN FIGHTERSMART FIGHTERRIGHT HONOURABLEGO HEROOUR LUCKY GLORYSTORMTROUPERUP AND UPHAPPY HUNKAROMATICA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 23

PLACE

7 30

8 12.5

9 21.5

QUINELLA

8,9 90.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,8 52

7,9 109

8,9 40.5

FORECAST

8,9 160

TIERCE

8,9,7 864

TRIO

7,8,9 230

FIRST 4

2,7,8,9 216

QUARTET

8,9,7,2 3,341

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

6,7,12/7,8,9 67,045

6TH DOUBLE

6/8 351.5

6/9 106.5

TRIPLE TRIO

4,9,10/6,7,12/7,8,9 1,722,732

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4,9,10/6,7,12/Any Combination 11,783