Sha Tin · 2024-02-04 · 05:04
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-02-04 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SPANGLE FORTUNE, ridden by K C Leung and trained by K L Man, won by 1/2, with BEAT HOLLOW second and FORTUNE MASTER third. The 3.7 favourite DAILY TROPHY finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SPANGLE FORTUNE B/TT 1.10.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 8 | 14.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 3 | BEAT HOLLOW Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 11 | 5.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 10 | FORTUNE MASTER B-/XB/PC1/TT Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 5 | 6.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | DAILY TROPHY B1/TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 7 | 3.7 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | MY INTELLIGENT V/TT E C W Wong · W Y So | E C W Wong | W Y So | 6 | 8.3 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 7 | MAGIC TRAVELLER B/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 10 | 55.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | ALL IS READY B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 2 | 5.5 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | GENERAL ACE XB-/CP L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 3 | 24.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 9 | 11 | PERFECT ROCK B/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 9 | 52.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 10 | 9 | FINGERS CROSSED XB/TT M Chadwick · M Newnham | M Chadwick | M Newnham | 1 | 15.0 | 10 |
| 11 | 2 | SUPER ELITE XB-/CP/H M L Yeung · P F Yiu | M L Yeung | P F Yiu | 4 | 11.0 | 13-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | FORTUNE MASTER | 24.8% | 4.02 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | DAILY TROPHY | 14.8% | 6.77 | 4 |
| 3 | 1 | MY INTELLIGENT | 12.7% | 7.89 | 5 |
| 4 | 3 | BEAT HOLLOW | 12.4% | 8.06 | 2 |
| 5 | 8 | ALL IS READY | 9.3% | 10.79 | 7 |
| 6 | 6 | GENERAL ACE | 5.6% | 17.92 | 8 |
| 7 | 2 | SUPER ELITE | 5.5% | 18.21 | 11 |
| 8 | 5 | SPANGLE FORTUNE | 5.3% | 18.74 | 1 |
| 9 | 9 | FINGERS CROSSED | 4.6% | 21.76 | 10 |
| 10 | 7 | MAGIC TRAVELLER | 3.8% | 26.18 | 6 |
| 11 | 11 | PERFECT ROCK | 1.2% | 82.96 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 143
PLACE
3 17.5
5 36.5
10 26
QUINELLA
3,5 329
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 102.5
3,10 66
5,10 145.5
FORECAST
5,3 804
TIERCE
5,3,10 7,202
TRIO
3,5,10 789
FIRST 4
3,4,5,10 490
QUARTET
5,3,10,4 17,242