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Sha Tin · 2024-02-04 · 05:32

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-02-04 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. PANDA, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C H Yip, won by 3/4, with BOWSER second and METRO WARRIOR third. The 2.9 favourite LIFELINE EXPRESS finished 4th.

Result

Official · 0.57.58
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 PANDA B 0.57.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C H Yip 12 7.4 3/4
2 5 BOWSER TT1 A Hamelin · P F Yiu 8 26.0 3/4
3 1 METRO WARRIOR B-/CP2 K C Leung · D A Hayes 13 5.1 3/4
4 3 LIFELINE EXPRESS J McDonald · J Size 6 2.9 1
5 14 MR GOOD VIBES B1 A Badel · D J Hall 9 40.0 1-1/4
6 7 LESS IS MORE TT H Bowman · F C Lor 11 6.8 2
7 4 SPARKLING DOLPHIN L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 1 33.0 3
8 12 GANGNAM STAR TT K Teetan · P C Ng 4 15.0 3-1/2
9 2 JOLLY COMPANION XB C L Chau · K L Man 5 19.0 3-1/2
10 6 FAMILY FORTUNE TT1 H Bentley · C Fownes 14 97.0 3-1/2
11 8 LUCKY CHARM TT1 B Avdulla · C S Shum 2 114.0 5-1/4
12 13 VALIANT ELEGANCE B/TT M Chadwick · D J Whyte 7 29.0 5-3/4
13 10 PHILOS H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 10 60.0 9-1/2
14 9 PACKING BRILLIANT A Atzeni · K W Lui 3 8.6 10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PANDA2. BOWSER+0.75L3. METRO WARRIOR+0.75L4. LIFELINE EXPRESS+1L5. MR GOOD VIBES+1.25L6. LESS IS MORE+2L7. SPARKLING DOLPHIN+3L8. GANGNAM STAR+3.5L9. JOLLY COMPANION+3.5L10. FAMILY FORTUNE+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick LIFELINE EXPRESS (23.5%) finished 4th — the winner PANDA was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 LIFELINE EXPRESS 23.5% 4.26 4
2 7 LESS IS MORE 15.8% 6.35 6
3 11 PANDA 11.7% 8.55 1
4 12 GANGNAM STAR 8.1% 12.40 8
5 9 PACKING BRILLIANT 7.4% 13.59 14
6 6 FAMILY FORTUNE 5.3% 18.95 10
7 10 PHILOS 4.7% 21.50 13
8 5 BOWSER 4.2% 23.96 2
9 1 METRO WARRIOR 4.1% 24.17 3
10 2 JOLLY COMPANION 3.9% 25.37 9
11 14 MR GOOD VIBES 3.3% 30.55 5
12 8 LUCKY CHARM 3.2% 31.42 11
13 13 VALIANT ELEGANCE 3.1% 31.96 12
14 4 SPARKLING DOLPHIN 1.9% 52.60 7
LIFELINE EXPRESSLESS IS MOREPANDA — wonGANGNAM STARPACKING BRILLIANTFAMILY FORTUNEPHILOSBOWSERMETRO WARRIORJOLLY COMPANIONMR GOOD VIBESLUCKY CHARMVALIANT ELEGANCESPARKLING DOLPHIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 74.5

PLACE

1 20.5

5 63.5

11 24.5

QUINELLA

5,11 804

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 162.5

1,11 66.5

5,11 211

FORECAST

11,5 1,372

TIERCE

11,5,1 10,183

TRIO

1,5,11 1,343

FIRST 4

1,3,5,11 1,040

QUARTET

11,5,1,3 33,996

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

5/5 565

5/11 1,070.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,10/1,5,11 181,349