Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2024-02-04 · 06:02

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 10 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-02-04 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. ILLUMINOUS, ridden by K Teetan and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with YOUNG CHAMPION second and NOT USUAL STAR third. The 2.2 favourite KA YING VICTORY finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.09.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 ILLUMINOUS B1 1.09.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · F C Lor 6 19.0 1/2
2 3 YOUNG CHAMPION J McDonald · J Size 1 7.5 1/2
3 2 NOT USUAL STAR H/TT C L Chau · W Y So 4 23.0 1-1/2
4 1 I GIVE A Atzeni · P C Ng 3 4.1 1-3/4
5 8 ORIENTAL SMOKE B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 5 44.0 1-3/4
6 10 MIDORI BEAUTY TT K De Melo · W Y So 8 11.0 3-1/2
7 7 PRAWNS ELEVEN L Hewitson · M Newnham 2 42.0 4
8 6 KA YING VICTORY TT Z Purton · D J Hall 7 2.2 4
9 4 EXCELLENT FIGHTER B/TT M Barzalona · P F Yiu 10 6.9 4-1/2
10 9 KA YING POWER B/H/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 9 86.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ILLUMINOUS2. YOUNG CHAMPION+0.5L3. NOT USUAL STAR+1.5L4. I GIVE+1.75L5. ORIENTAL SMOKE+1.75L6. MIDORI BEAUTY+3.5L7. PRAWNS ELEVEN+4L8. KA YING VICTORY+4L9. EXCELLENT FIGHTER+4.5L10. KA YING POWER+9.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick I GIVE (35.8%) finished 4th — the winner ILLUMINOUS was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 I GIVE 35.8% 2.80 4
2 6 KA YING VICTORY 29.0% 3.44 8
3 3 YOUNG CHAMPION 8.6% 11.57 2
4 5 ILLUMINOUS 6.4% 15.51 1
5 10 MIDORI BEAUTY 6.2% 16.26 6
6 4 EXCELLENT FIGHTER 4.8% 20.80 9
7 2 NOT USUAL STAR 4.0% 24.96 3
8 7 PRAWNS ELEVEN 2.6% 38.78 7
9 8 ORIENTAL SMOKE 1.8% 55.01 5
10 9 KA YING POWER 0.8% 133.14 10
I GIVEKA YING VICTORYYOUNG CHAMPIONILLUMINOUS — wonMIDORI BEAUTYEXCELLENT FIGHTERNOT USUAL STARPRAWNS ELEVENORIENTAL SMOKEKA YING POWER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 198

PLACE

2 44.5

3 22.5

5 37.5

QUINELLA

3,5 453.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 151

2,5 291.5

3,5 120

FORECAST

5,3 1,194

TIERCE

5,3,2 11,749

TRIO

2,3,5 2,081

FIRST 4

1,2,3,5 1,378

QUARTET

5,3,2,1 50,693

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

11/3 89.5

11/5 1,869