Sha Tin · 2024-02-04 · 06:02
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-02-04 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. ILLUMINOUS, ridden by K Teetan and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with YOUNG CHAMPION second and NOT USUAL STAR third. The 2.2 favourite KA YING VICTORY finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | ILLUMINOUS B1 1.09.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 6 | 19.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 3 | YOUNG CHAMPION J McDonald · J Size | J McDonald | J Size | 1 | 7.5 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | NOT USUAL STAR H/TT C L Chau · W Y So | C L Chau | W Y So | 4 | 23.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | I GIVE A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 3 | 4.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 8 | ORIENTAL SMOKE B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 5 | 44.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | MIDORI BEAUTY TT K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 8 | 11.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 7 | PRAWNS ELEVEN L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 2 | 42.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 6 | KA YING VICTORY TT Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 7 | 2.2 | 4 |
| 9 | 4 | EXCELLENT FIGHTER B/TT M Barzalona · P F Yiu | M Barzalona | P F Yiu | 10 | 6.9 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | KA YING POWER B/H/TT A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | 9 | 86.0 | 9-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | I GIVE | 35.8% | 2.80 | 4 |
| 2 | 6 | KA YING VICTORY | 29.0% | 3.44 | 8 |
| 3 | 3 | YOUNG CHAMPION | 8.6% | 11.57 | 2 |
| 4 | 5 | ILLUMINOUS | 6.4% | 15.51 | 1 |
| 5 | 10 | MIDORI BEAUTY | 6.2% | 16.26 | 6 |
| 6 | 4 | EXCELLENT FIGHTER | 4.8% | 20.80 | 9 |
| 7 | 2 | NOT USUAL STAR | 4.0% | 24.96 | 3 |
| 8 | 7 | PRAWNS ELEVEN | 2.6% | 38.78 | 7 |
| 9 | 8 | ORIENTAL SMOKE | 1.8% | 55.01 | 5 |
| 10 | 9 | KA YING POWER | 0.8% | 133.14 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 198
PLACE
2 44.5
3 22.5
5 37.5
QUINELLA
3,5 453.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 151
2,5 291.5
3,5 120
FORECAST
5,3 1,194
TIERCE
5,3,2 11,749
TRIO
2,3,5 2,081
FIRST 4
1,2,3,5 1,378
QUARTET
5,3,2,1 50,693
All pools (1 more)
2ND DOUBLE
11/3 89.5
11/5 1,869