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Sha Tin · 2024-02-04 · 08:44

Race 8

Group 3 GOOD 1800m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-02-04 was Group 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. NIMBLE NIMBUS, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by P F Yiu, won by HD, with FIVE G PATCH second and STRAIGHT ARRON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite HAPPY TOGETHER finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.47.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 NIMBLE NIMBUS Closed strongly V/TT 1.47.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · P F Yiu 5 7.9 HD
2 11 FIVE G PATCH Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 1 8.4 HD
3 1 STRAIGHT ARRON Closed strongly H Bowman · C Fownes 3 9.3 3/4
4 13 LA CITY BLANCHE Closed strongly TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 7 10.0 1-1/4
5 8 CHAMPION DRAGON H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 8 21.0 2-1/4
6 9 FANTASTIC TREASURE CP-/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 10 37.0 3
7 6 HAPPY TOGETHER H/TT A Badel · F C Lor 2 3.2 3
8 2 ENCOUNTERED TT K C Leung · K L Man 12 15.0 3
9 14 SPIRITED EXPRESS Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · P F Yiu 6 23.0 3-3/4
10 5 SWORD POINT CP L Hewitson · F C Lor 4 10.0 4
11 10 TOURBILLON DIAMOND Closed strongly V/XB H Bentley · M Newnham 9 37.0 4
12 7 SUPER SUNNY SING TT1 B Avdulla · W Y So 14 9.1 4-1/4
13 4 SENOR TOBA V2/TT K De Melo · C Fownes 11 50.0 5-1/4
14 3 MONEY CATCHER Led early V1 L Ferraris · F C Lor 13 45.0 5-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NIMBLE NIMBUS2. FIVE G PATCH+0.2L3. STRAIGHT ARRON+0.75L4. LA CITY BLANCHE+1.25L5. CHAMPION DRAGON+2.25L6. FANTASTIC TREASURE+3L7. HAPPY TOGETHER+3L8. ENCOUNTERED+3L9. SPIRITED EXPRESS+3.75L10. SWORD POINT+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick HAPPY TOGETHER (24.0%) finished 7th — the winner NIMBLE NIMBUS was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 HAPPY TOGETHER 24.0% 4.17 7
2 1 STRAIGHT ARRON 14.5% 6.90 3
3 11 FIVE G PATCH 7.6% 13.23 2
4 13 LA CITY BLANCHE 6.9% 14.55 4
5 5 SWORD POINT 6.5% 15.37 10
6 3 MONEY CATCHER 6.3% 15.83 14
7 12 NIMBLE NIMBUS 6.2% 16.21 1
8 2 ENCOUNTERED 4.9% 20.51 8
9 7 SUPER SUNNY SING 4.8% 21.00 12
10 8 CHAMPION DRAGON 4.7% 21.42 5
11 10 TOURBILLON DIAMOND 4.3% 23.27 11
12 14 SPIRITED EXPRESS 4.1% 24.23 9
13 4 SENOR TOBA 3.2% 31.18 13
14 9 FANTASTIC TREASURE 2.2% 45.83 6
HAPPY TOGETHERSTRAIGHT ARRONFIVE G PATCHLA CITY BLANCHESWORD POINTMONEY CATCHERNIMBLE NIMBUS — wonENCOUNTEREDSUPER SUNNY SINGCHAMPION DRAGONTOURBILLON DIAMONDSPIRITED EXPRESSSENOR TOBAFANTASTIC TREASURE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 79.5

PLACE

1 32

11 25.5

12 28.5

QUINELLA

11,12 380.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,11 136.5

1,12 170

11,12 125.5

FORECAST

12,11 805

TIERCE

12,11,1 6,709

TRIO

1,11,12 1,287

FIRST 4

1,11,12,13 1,766

QUARTET

12,11,1,13 42,335

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,9/1,11,12 35,732

7TH DOUBLE

1/11 20.5

1/12 123