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Happy Valley · 2024-02-15 · 10:43

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-02-15 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. GENERAL ACE, ridden by K De Melo and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with VIVA A LA second and TACTICAL COMMAND third. The 3.2 favourite GREAT DAYS finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.10.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 GENERAL ACE CP 1.10.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K De Melo · K W Lui 8 22.0 N
2 12 VIVA A LA B/H/TT M F Poon · K L Man 10 7.1 N
3 4 TACTICAL COMMAND CP-/B1 L Ferraris · M Newnham 7 17.0 1-1/2
4 3 SUPER ELITE CP/H M L Yeung · P F Yiu 6 15.0 1-3/4
5 2 WIND SPEEDER B Z Purton · Y S Tsui 3 5.0 2
6 9 GREAT DAYS H/PC/XB K Teetan · P C Ng 1 3.2 2-1/2
7 1 MORE RICE B L Hewitson · T P Yung 5 12.0 2-3/4
8 6 PRESTIGE MOOCHI TT B Thompson · C H Yip 11 47.0 2-3/4
9 7 GOODMANSHIP B/TT K C Leung · D J Whyte 2 6.9 3-1/2
10 10 HAPPILY FRIENDS V E C W Wong · W Y So 9 19.0 4-1/4
11 5 AUGUST MOON BO/TT Y L Chung · J Richards 12 14.0 5-3/4
12 11 CALL ME TEDDY B-/SR-/TT M Chadwick · C W Chang 4 32.0 6-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GENERAL ACE2. VIVA A LA+0.05L3. TACTICAL COMMAND+1.5L4. SUPER ELITE+1.75L5. WIND SPEEDER+2L6. GREAT DAYS+2.5L7. MORE RICE+2.75L8. PRESTIGE MOOCHI+2.75L9. GOODMANSHIP+3.5L10. HAPPILY FRIENDS+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick GREAT DAYS (34.6%) finished 6th — the winner GENERAL ACE was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 GREAT DAYS 34.6% 2.89 6
2 2 WIND SPEEDER 15.0% 6.69 5
3 7 GOODMANSHIP 8.2% 12.17 9
4 5 AUGUST MOON 7.8% 12.81 11
5 12 VIVA A LA 6.7% 15.02 2
6 10 HAPPILY FRIENDS 6.3% 15.90 10
7 6 PRESTIGE MOOCHI 4.3% 23.37 8
8 3 SUPER ELITE 4.0% 24.91 4
9 4 TACTICAL COMMAND 3.8% 26.46 3
10 1 MORE RICE 3.4% 29.42 7
11 8 GENERAL ACE 3.1% 31.85 1
12 11 CALL ME TEDDY 2.8% 35.11 12
GREAT DAYSWIND SPEEDERGOODMANSHIPAUGUST MOONVIVA A LAHAPPILY FRIENDSPRESTIGE MOOCHISUPER ELITETACTICAL COMMANDMORE RICEGENERAL ACE — wonCALL ME TEDDY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 221.5

PLACE

4 46

8 65.5

12 25.5

QUINELLA

8,12 984.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 710.5

4,12 255

8,12 279

FORECAST

8,12 2,233

TIERCE

8,12,4 43,239

TRIO

4,8,12 6,704

FIRST 4

3,4,8,12 17,746

QUARTET

8,12,4,3 439,950