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Happy Valley · 2024-02-15 · 14:24

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C 11 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2024-02-15 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. GOLDEN EMPIRE, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-3/4, with NICCONI COUNTY second and ACT OF FAITH third. The 2.3 favourite RIGHTEOUS ARION finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.10.27
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 GOLDEN EMPIRE B 1.10.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · K W Lui 7 18.0 1-3/4
2 2 NICCONI COUNTY XB/TT K Teetan · C Fownes 6 9.0 1-3/4
3 4 ACT OF FAITH B B Avdulla · J Size 2 6.5 2
4 8 RIGHTEOUS ARION H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 3 2.3 2-1/4
5 9 MEGA BONUS V M F Poon · P F Yiu 9 34.0 2-1/2
6 10 ORIENTAL SMOKE B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 4 15.0 3-1/4
7 11 READY TO WIN CP/XB/TT A Badel · F C Lor 8 15.0 3-1/2
8 7 HOSS B/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 1 17.0 4-1/4
9 5 PRINCE OF PORTY CP/TT Z Purton · D J Hall 10 5.1 4-3/4
10 1 LIGHTNING BOLT TT H Bentley · C S Shum 11 29.0 6-1/4
11 6 CONTI CONTI B1/TT1 M Chadwick · W K Mo 5 58.0 13-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOLDEN EMPIRE2. NICCONI COUNTY+1.75L3. ACT OF FAITH+2L4. RIGHTEOUS ARION+2.25L5. MEGA BONUS+2.5L6. ORIENTAL SMOKE+3.25L7. READY TO WIN+3.5L8. HOSS+4.25L9. PRINCE OF PORTY+4.75L10. LIGHTNING BOLT+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick RIGHTEOUS ARION (25.9%) finished 4th — the winner GOLDEN EMPIRE was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 RIGHTEOUS ARION 25.9% 3.86 4
2 5 PRINCE OF PORTY 15.6% 6.42 9
3 11 READY TO WIN 12.7% 7.89 7
4 2 NICCONI COUNTY 9.0% 11.08 2
5 7 HOSS 8.4% 11.96 8
6 4 ACT OF FAITH 8.1% 12.30 3
7 1 LIGHTNING BOLT 5.9% 16.99 10
8 10 ORIENTAL SMOKE 4.3% 23.02 6
9 3 GOLDEN EMPIRE 4.2% 23.89 1
10 9 MEGA BONUS 3.4% 29.77 5
11 6 CONTI CONTI 2.6% 39.02 11
RIGHTEOUS ARIONPRINCE OF PORTYREADY TO WINNICCONI COUNTYHOSSACT OF FAITHLIGHTNING BOLTORIENTAL SMOKEGOLDEN EMPIRE — wonMEGA BONUSCONTI CONTI

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 189

PLACE

2 21.5

3 59

4 18.5

QUINELLA

2,3 897.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 222.5

2,4 63

3,4 189

FORECAST

3,2 1,871

TIERCE

3,2,4 10,177

TRIO

2,3,4 1,310

FIRST 4

2,3,4,8 492

QUARTET

3,2,4,8 19,816

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

2/2 268

2/3 2,634