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Happy Valley · 2024-02-15 · 11:49

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C 11 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-02-15 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. CORDYCEPS ONE, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by C H Yip, won by 2-1/2, with BRAVE WITNESS second and JOYFUL PROSPERITY third. The winner led throughout. The 3.6 favourite CAPITAL LEGEND finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.41.08
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 CORDYCEPS ONE Wire to wire 1.41.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · C H Yip 7 5.8 2-1/2
2 4 BRAVE WITNESS Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C S Shum 5 8.0 2-1/2
3 7 JOYFUL PROSPERITY Closed strongly K C Leung · C W Chang 9 5.5 3
4 2 KIMBERLEY PC-/B2/TT A Hamelin · J Richards 12 23.0 3
5 1 CAPITAL LEGEND Closed strongly TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 2 3.6 4
6 6 CHATEAU Closed strongly A Atzeni · J Size 10 10.0 4
7 8 LEGION OF MERIT B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 3 9.7 5
8 12 SPLENDID STAR SR1/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 8 12.0 5-3/4
9 10 KEEN UNITY CP-/V1/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 6 20.0 5-3/4
10 9 FORTUNE PRESIDENT K De Melo · Y S Tsui 4 21.0 7-1/2
11 3 FIGHT TIME B/TT M F Poon · D J Hall 11 21.0 12
0 FEARLESS FIRE K Teetan · D A Hayes
5 JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP L Hewitson · P F Yiu

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CORDYCEPS ONE2. BRAVE WITNESS+2.5L3. JOYFUL PROSPERITY+3L4. KIMBERLEY+3L5. CAPITAL LEGEND+4L6. CHATEAU+4L7. LEGION OF MERIT+5L8. SPLENDID STAR+5.75L9. KEEN UNITY+5.75L10. FORTUNE PRESIDENT+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick CAPITAL LEGEND (19.1%) finished 5th — the winner CORDYCEPS ONE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 CAPITAL LEGEND 19.1% 5.22 5
2 7 JOYFUL PROSPERITY 17.1% 5.84 3
3 4 BRAVE WITNESS 11.6% 8.58 2
4 8 LEGION OF MERIT 10.2% 9.82 7
5 11 CORDYCEPS ONE 8.6% 11.61 1
6 6 CHATEAU 7.4% 13.52 6
7 3 FIGHT TIME 6.5% 15.47 11
8 12 SPLENDID STAR 6.1% 16.51 8
9 2 KIMBERLEY 4.8% 20.65 4
10 10 KEEN UNITY 4.6% 21.94 9
11 9 FORTUNE PRESIDENT 4.0% 25.20 10
CAPITAL LEGENDJOYFUL PROSPERITYBRAVE WITNESSLEGION OF MERITCORDYCEPS ONE — wonCHATEAUFIGHT TIMESPLENDID STARKIMBERLEYKEEN UNITYFORTUNE PRESIDENT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 58

PLACE

4 28

7 21

11 19

QUINELLA

4,11 216.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 83

4,11 80.5

7,11 64.5

FORECAST

11,4 426

TIERCE

11,4,7 2,597

TRIO

4,7,11 461

FIRST 4

2,4,7,11 2,973

QUARTET

11,4,7,2 58,824

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,8/4,7,11 15,176

2ND DOUBLE

2/4 106.5

2/11 655