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Happy Valley · 2024-02-15 · 13:17

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course C 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2024-02-15 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. HARMONY FIRE, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by D J Whyte, won by 2-3/4, with FUN ELITE second and RUBY SAILING third. Victory came as the 4.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.57.27
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 HARMONY FIRE SR/TT 0.57.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · D J Whyte 4 4.3 2-3/4
2 2 FUN ELITE TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 10 7.5 2-3/4
3 9 RUBY SAILING TT M L Yeung · K L Man 5 7.7 3-1/2
4 12 KING INVINCIBLE B/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 3 10.0 3-3/4
5 8 PARENTS' LOVE H1/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 9 8.7 4
6 4 SERGEANT PEPPER M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 8 21.0 4-1/4
7 1 FORTUNE WARRIOR B K Teetan · P C Ng 7 9.1 5-1/2
8 10 SAVVY DELIGHT P/TT A Atzeni · J Size 12 11.0 5-1/2
9 5 GLORIOUS EXPERT P1/TT A Badel · D J Hall 2 16.0 6
10 6 HICKORY VICTORY B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 6 79.0 6
11 11 SAME TO YOU H/P/TT1 B Thompson · M Newnham 11 107.0 6-1/2
12 7 MOLLY'S WITNESS TT1 Z Purton · J Richards 1 5.5 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HARMONY FIRE2. FUN ELITE+2.75L3. RUBY SAILING+3.5L4. KING INVINCIBLE+3.75L5. PARENTS' LOVE+4L6. SERGEANT PEPPER+4.25L7. FORTUNE WARRIOR+5.5L8. SAVVY DELIGHT+5.5L9. GLORIOUS EXPERT+6L10. HICKORY VICTORY+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MOLLY'S WITNESS (19.9%) finished 12th — the winner HARMONY FIRE was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 MOLLY'S WITNESS 19.9% 5.02 12
2 8 PARENTS' LOVE 12.6% 7.94 5
3 5 GLORIOUS EXPERT 11.2% 8.96 9
4 2 FUN ELITE 10.9% 9.14 2
5 1 FORTUNE WARRIOR 9.0% 11.07 7
6 3 HARMONY FIRE 9.0% 11.11 1
7 10 SAVVY DELIGHT 9.0% 11.14 8
8 12 KING INVINCIBLE 6.1% 16.31 4
9 4 SERGEANT PEPPER 5.6% 17.93 6
10 9 RUBY SAILING 5.5% 18.14 3
11 6 HICKORY VICTORY 0.7% 151.34 10
12 11 SAME TO YOU 0.5% 194.91 11
MOLLY'S WITNESSPARENTS' LOVEGLORIOUS EXPERTFUN ELITEFORTUNE WARRIORHARMONY FIRE — wonSAVVY DELIGHTKING INVINCIBLESERGEANT PEPPERRUBY SAILINGHICKORY VICTORYSAME TO YOU

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 43.5

PLACE

2 21.5

3 19

9 23

QUINELLA

2,3 208.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 74.5

2,9 79

3,9 75.5

FORECAST

3,2 478

TIERCE

3,2,9 2,562

TRIO

2,3,9 457

FIRST 4

2,3,9,12 1,069

QUARTET

3,2,9,12 23,800

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

3/2 101

3/3 464.5