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Happy Valley · 2024-02-15 · 13:53

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2024-02-15 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. JOY COMING, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with MULTIDARLING second and LYRICAL MOTION third. The 3.9 favourite LYRICAL MOTION finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.10.81
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 JOY COMING CP-/B1/TT 1.10.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · K W Lui 12 20.0 SH
2 9 MULTIDARLING TT K Teetan · T P Yung 1 4.9 SH
3 5 LYRICAL MOTION B/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 4 3.9 3/4
4 7 COUNTRY DANCER P B Avdulla · J Size 9 12.0 1-1/4
5 8 CRYSTAL POWERFUL B/H/TT A Atzeni · W K Mo 11 15.0 1-3/4
6 10 SHINKANSEN H/SR/TT B Thompson · D J Whyte 7 20.0 2-1/4
7 6 YODA'S CHOICE CP1 Z Purton · P C Ng 2 4.7 2-1/2
8 11 CHEER FOR SOUTH SR M F Poon · F C Lor 5 12.0 3-1/2
9 4 TOP TOP TEA V-/B2/TT H Bentley · C H Yip 10 21.0 4
10 12 GALLANT GOODY M L Yeung · P F Yiu 3 46.0 4
11 3 ERNEST FEELING B/TT A Hamelin · J Richards 6 6.9 7-1/2
12 1 KA YING POWER B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 8 57.0 11-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JOY COMING2. MULTIDARLING+0.1L3. LYRICAL MOTION+0.75L4. COUNTRY DANCER+1.25L5. CRYSTAL POWERFUL+1.75L6. SHINKANSEN+2.25L7. YODA'S CHOICE+2.5L8. CHEER FOR SOUTH+3.5L9. TOP TOP TEA+4L10. GALLANT GOODY+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick YODA'S CHOICE (24.9%) finished 7th — the winner JOY COMING was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 YODA'S CHOICE 24.9% 4.01 7
2 5 LYRICAL MOTION 16.9% 5.90 3
3 9 MULTIDARLING 12.1% 8.29 2
4 10 SHINKANSEN 9.7% 10.32 6
5 3 ERNEST FEELING 7.4% 13.50 11
6 8 CRYSTAL POWERFUL 7.4% 13.52 5
7 2 JOY COMING 5.5% 18.09 1
8 11 CHEER FOR SOUTH 5.5% 18.27 8
9 7 COUNTRY DANCER 4.7% 21.11 4
10 4 TOP TOP TEA 4.2% 23.96 9
11 1 KA YING POWER 0.9% 106.29 12
12 12 GALLANT GOODY 0.7% 140.22 10
YODA'S CHOICELYRICAL MOTIONMULTIDARLINGSHINKANSENERNEST FEELINGCRYSTAL POWERFULJOY COMING — wonCHEER FOR SOUTHCOUNTRY DANCERTOP TOP TEAKA YING POWERGALLANT GOODY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 206.5

PLACE

2 52

5 15.5

9 17

QUINELLA

2,9 438

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 111.5

2,9 143

5,9 38.5

FORECAST

2,9 989

TIERCE

2,9,5 4,503

TRIO

2,5,9 463

FIRST 4

2,5,7,9 1,685

QUARTET

2,9,5,7 48,370

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,9/2,5,9 41,505

6TH DOUBLE

3/2 1,280.5

3/9 67.5

TRIPLE TRIO

1,3,4/2,3,9/2,5,9 2,011,453

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,3,4/2,3,9/Any Combination 3,771