Happy Valley · 2024-02-15 · 12:46
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2024-02-15 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. A AMERIC TE SPECSO, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by HD, with ATOMIC FORCE second and COLOURFUL EMPEROR third. The 2.5 favourite COLOURFUL EMPEROR finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO B 1.10.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 11 | 5.2 | HD |
| 2 | 1 | ATOMIC FORCE H-/XB- H Bentley · C Fownes | H Bentley | C Fownes | 5 | 13.0 | HD |
| 3 | 4 | COLOURFUL EMPEROR TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz | L Hewitson | A S Cruz | 2 | 2.5 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 8 | DENFIELD CP/TT Y L Chung · C S Shum | Y L Chung | C S Shum | 3 | 8.4 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | KYRUS DRAGON H/XB A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 6 | 19.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL B/XB M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 4 | 22.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | TOGEPI B/TT A Atzeni · W K Mo | A Atzeni | W K Mo | 1 | 9.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | HAPPY TRIO B K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 7 | 9.3 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 7 | STAR LINE B K De Melo · D J Hall | K De Melo | D J Hall | 8 | 71.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | JUMBO FORTUNE PC/XB A Hamelin · P C Ng | A Hamelin | P C Ng | 9 | 13.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 5 | KYEEMA L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 10 | 45.0 | 6-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | COLOURFUL EMPEROR | 20.7% | 4.82 | 3 |
| 2 | 11 | TOGEPI | 19.0% | 5.27 | 7 |
| 3 | 6 | HAPPY TRIO | 12.4% | 8.04 | 8 |
| 4 | 3 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO | 11.1% | 9.04 | 1 |
| 5 | 9 | JUMBO FORTUNE | 9.5% | 10.56 | 10 |
| 6 | 8 | DENFIELD | 7.8% | 12.83 | 4 |
| 7 | 10 | KYRUS DRAGON | 7.0% | 14.28 | 5 |
| 8 | 2 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL | 4.9% | 20.58 | 6 |
| 9 | 1 | ATOMIC FORCE | 4.0% | 25.26 | 2 |
| 10 | 5 | KYEEMA | 2.3% | 43.44 | 11 |
| 11 | 7 | STAR LINE | 1.4% | 71.88 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 52
PLACE
1 33.5
3 21
4 13.5
QUINELLA
1,3 361
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 107
1,4 61
3,4 37
FORECAST
3,1 599
TIERCE
3,1,4 2,298
TRIO
1,3,4 287
FIRST 4
1,3,4,8 411
QUARTET
3,1,4,8 13,539
All pools (3 more)
1ST TREBLE
11/11/1 1,152
11/11/3 2,688
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,10,11/1,3,4 21,083
4TH DOUBLE
11/1 122
11/3 421.5