Happy Valley · 2024-02-21 · 11:42
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-02-21 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY FAT CAT, ridden by M F Poon and trained by W K Mo, won by 1/2, with HERCULES second and HAYDAY third. Victory came as the 5.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | HAPPY FAT CAT TT 1.10.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · W K Mo | M F Poon | W K Mo | 6 | 5.7 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 8 | HERCULES B/TT A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 5 | 6.1 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 9 | HAYDAY H/P/TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 2 | 10.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 5 | THE KHAN H/P/TT K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 11 | 9.6 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | WOODFIRE CHAMP TT A Atzeni · C W Chang | A Atzeni | C W Chang | 9 | 17.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | GREAT ACHIEVER C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 3 | 6.2 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | JOLLY COMPANION XB K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 7 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 11 | ALLOY KING V M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 10 | 12.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 7 | LAPRAS CP-/SR- L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 4 | 42.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 12 | VALIANT ELEGANCE B/TT B Thompson · D J Whyte | B Thompson | D J Whyte | 8 | 7.7 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 1 | ENFOLDED TT B Avdulla · J Richards | B Avdulla | J Richards | 1 | 36.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 12 | 6 | SHANGHAI STYLE B/TT Y L Chung · C S Shum | Y L Chung | C S Shum | 12 | 9.6 | 11 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | HERCULES | 20.7% | 4.82 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 | GREAT ACHIEVER | 14.9% | 6.70 | 6 |
| 3 | 3 | HAPPY FAT CAT | 10.9% | 9.15 | 1 |
| 4 | 9 | HAYDAY | 9.4% | 10.68 | 3 |
| 5 | 11 | ALLOY KING | 9.2% | 10.90 | 8 |
| 6 | 2 | JOLLY COMPANION | 8.2% | 12.24 | 7 |
| 7 | 10 | WOODFIRE CHAMP | 7.7% | 13.02 | 5 |
| 8 | 12 | VALIANT ELEGANCE | 5.5% | 18.33 | 10 |
| 9 | 5 | THE KHAN | 5.1% | 19.43 | 4 |
| 10 | 6 | SHANGHAI STYLE | 5.1% | 19.78 | 12 |
| 11 | 7 | LAPRAS | 2.3% | 42.64 | 9 |
| 12 | 1 | ENFOLDED | 1.0% | 98.69 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 57
PLACE
3 21
8 22.5
9 35.5
QUINELLA
3,8 154
QUINELLA PLACE
3,8 56.5
3,9 107
8,9 108
FORECAST
3,8 329
TIERCE
3,8,9 2,679
TRIO
3,8,9 544
FIRST 4
3,5,8,9 1,422
QUARTET
3,8,9,5 26,317
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,5,7/3,8,9 16,799
2ND DOUBLE
7/3 338.5
7/8 76.5