Happy Valley · 2024-02-21 · 12:12

Race 4

Class 1 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 8 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-02-21 was Class 1 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. TOMODACHI KOKOROE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D A Hayes, won by NOSE, with BUNDLE OF CHARM second and BEAUTY CHARGE third. The 2.7 favourite SON PAK FU finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.09.44

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	8	TOMODACHI KOKOROE TT 1.09.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D A Hayes	K Teetan	D A Hayes	7	115 lb	4.0	NOSE
2	6	BUNDLE OF CHARM A Badel · J Size	A Badel	J Size	5	119 lb	5.6	NOSE
3	7	BEAUTY CHARGE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz	Y L Chung	A S Cruz	1	113 lb	5.6	1/2
4	3	SON PAK FU BO C L Chau · T P Yung	C L Chau	T P Yung	2	127 lb	2.7	1/2
5	2	ADIOS TT M F Poon · F C Lor	M F Poon	F C Lor	4	129 lb	15.0	1-1/4
6	5	MAJESTIC KNIGHT B B Thompson · D J Whyte	B Thompson	D J Whyte	8	120 lb	11.0	1-1/2
7	1	DUKE WAI P A Atzeni · P C Ng	A Atzeni	P C Ng	6	135 lb	21.0	1-1/2
8	4	KURPANY B/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes	E C W Wong	C Fownes	3	118 lb	23.0	3

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick TOMODACHI KOKOROE (21.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	8	TOMODACHI KOKOROE	21.2%	4.71	1	4.0
2	5	MAJESTIC KNIGHT	16.6%	6.02	6	11.0
3	6	BUNDLE OF CHARM	15.1%	6.61	2	5.6
4	3	SON PAK FU	14.6%	6.83	4	2.7
5	2	ADIOS	12.7%	7.88	5	15.0
6	7	BEAUTY CHARGE	7.3%	13.63	3	5.6
7	4	KURPANY	6.5%	15.42	8	23.0
8	1	DUKE WAI	5.9%	17.02	7	21.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 40.5

PLACE

6 18

7 19.5

8 15.5

QUINELLA

6,8 110

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 43

6,8 38.5

7,8 40

FORECAST

8,6 231

TIERCE

8,6,7 904

TRIO

6,7,8 182

FIRST 4

3,6,7,8 79

QUARTET

8,6,7,3 2,406

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

3/6 55.5

3/8 272.5

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