Happy Valley · 2024-02-21 · 13:47
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2024-02-21 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. WINNING DRAGON, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by A S Cruz, won by NOSE, with LOVERO second and RED HARE KING third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite RED HARE KING finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | WINNING DRAGON Closed strongly B/H/TT 1.39.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 3 | 12.0 | NOSE |
| 2 | 9 | LOVERO Closed strongly TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 4 | 6.5 | NOSE |
| 3 | 12 | RED HARE KING Closed strongly TT A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | 2 | 2.6 | SH |
| 4 | 8 | ESCAPE ROUTE Closed strongly H H Bentley · J Size | H Bentley | J Size | 9 | 10.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | GALAXY WITNESS Closed strongly K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 7 | 5.9 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | STAR CONTACT Closed strongly CP/TT A Hamelin · D A Hayes | A Hamelin | D A Hayes | 10 | 35.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 2 | PRIME MINISTER Closed strongly TT K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 5 | 23.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 4 | TOURBILLON PRINCE Led early TT L Hewitson · T P Yung | L Hewitson | T P Yung | 8 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 10 | GLORIOUS JOURNEY M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 6 | 21.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 11 | LOYAL BABY Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · W K Mo | M L Yeung | W K Mo | 12 | 93.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | I AM THE BOSS XB-/B B Thompson · K W Lui | B Thompson | K W Lui | 1 | 19.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 6 | MASTER OF FORTUNE PC-/TT M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 11 | 17.0 | 6-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | RED HARE KING | 26.7% | 3.74 | 3 |
| 2 | 9 | LOVERO | 15.4% | 6.48 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | GALAXY WITNESS | 9.9% | 10.07 | 5 |
| 4 | 4 | TOURBILLON PRINCE | 9.1% | 10.94 | 8 |
| 5 | 8 | ESCAPE ROUTE | 8.9% | 11.24 | 4 |
| 6 | 6 | MASTER OF FORTUNE | 8.5% | 11.75 | 12 |
| 7 | 10 | GLORIOUS JOURNEY | 5.2% | 19.22 | 9 |
| 8 | 5 | WINNING DRAGON | 4.5% | 22.12 | 1 |
| 9 | 2 | PRIME MINISTER | 3.8% | 26.18 | 7 |
| 10 | 7 | STAR CONTACT | 3.4% | 29.27 | 6 |
| 11 | 3 | I AM THE BOSS | 3.2% | 31.20 | 11 |
| 12 | 11 | LOYAL BABY | 1.2% | 84.24 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 120.5
PLACE
5 37.5
9 22.5
12 13
QUINELLA
5,9 434
QUINELLA PLACE
5,9 129.5
5,12 63
9,12 37.5
FORECAST
5,9 946
TIERCE
5,9,12 2,179
TRIO
5,9,12 278
FIRST 4
5,8,9,12 597
QUARTET
5,9,12,8 18,077
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,5,7/5,9,12 22,271
6TH DOUBLE
5/5 663.5
5/9 81
TRIPLE TRIO
7,10>2,4/1,5,7/5,9,12 926,959
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
7,10>2,4/1,5,7/Any Combination 3,198