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Happy Valley · 2024-02-21 · 12:44

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course C+3 11 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2024-02-21 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. SERANGOON, ridden by H Bentley and trained by A S Cruz, won by SH, with FOREVER GLORIOUS second and KYRUS UNICORN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.49.82
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 SERANGOON Closed strongly CP/TT 1.49.82 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · A S Cruz 1 4.0 SH
2 7 FOREVER GLORIOUS Led early B/TT C L Chau · K W Lui 11 8.6 SH
3 10 KYRUS UNICORN Closed strongly A Atzeni · D J Hall 5 7.2 N
4 9 CASA COSMO B/TT A Hamelin · J Richards 4 29.0 1
5 5 TAKE ACTION P1 B Avdulla · J Size 7 7.4 1-3/4
6 6 MR ALADDIN CP K Teetan · P C Ng 10 6.3 2-1/4
7 11 SUNNY BABY Closed strongly M L Yeung · D A Hayes 3 13.0 3
8 1 PRECISE EXPRESS Closed strongly H B Thompson · P F Yiu 6 21.0 4
9 3 OWNERS' PRAISE B K De Melo · W Y So 8 15.0 5-1/4
10 12 TURTLE AGAIN B/TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 12 5.9 5-1/4
11 8 ROBOT FIGHTER B- K C Leung · K L Man 2 35.0 6
2 PEGASUS GENERAL Y L Chung · K H Ting

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SERANGOON2. FOREVER GLORIOUS+0.1L3. KYRUS UNICORN+0.05L4. CASA COSMO+1L5. TAKE ACTION+1.75L6. MR ALADDIN+2.25L7. SUNNY BABY+3L8. PRECISE EXPRESS+4L9. OWNERS' PRAISE+5.25L10. TURTLE AGAIN+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SERANGOON (19.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 SERANGOON 19.0% 5.28 1
2 6 MR ALADDIN 14.2% 7.06 6
3 10 KYRUS UNICORN 11.8% 8.50 3
4 7 FOREVER GLORIOUS 11.6% 8.64 2
5 12 TURTLE AGAIN 10.2% 9.79 10
6 3 OWNERS' PRAISE 9.2% 10.82 9
7 5 TAKE ACTION 7.7% 12.99 5
8 11 SUNNY BABY 7.1% 14.05 7
9 1 PRECISE EXPRESS 4.7% 21.42 8
10 8 ROBOT FIGHTER 2.4% 40.92 11
11 9 CASA COSMO 2.2% 46.08 4
SERANGOON — wonMR ALADDINKYRUS UNICORNFOREVER GLORIOUSTURTLE AGAINOWNERS' PRAISETAKE ACTIONSUNNY BABYPRECISE EXPRESSROBOT FIGHTERCASA COSMO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 40

PLACE

4 18

7 29.5

10 22

QUINELLA

4,7 273

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 95

4,10 54

7,10 121

FORECAST

4,7 396

TIERCE

4,7,10 1,929

TRIO

4,7,10 444

FIRST 4

4,7,9,10 2,829

QUARTET

4,7,10,9 47,992

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

3/8/2,4 1,039

3/8/7 834

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

6,7,8/7,10>2,4 14,705

4TH DOUBLE

8/2,4 198

8/7 122.5