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Happy Valley · 2024-02-21 · 14:58

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2024-02-21 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. KA YING SPIRIT, ridden by K H Chan and trained by C S Shum, won by 2-1/4, with HEROIC MASTER second and ATOMIC ENERGY third. The 2.9 favourite HAPPY UNITED finished 4th.

Result

Official · 0.56.95
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 KA YING SPIRIT B/TT 0.56.95 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · C S Shum 5 30.0 2-1/4
2 3 HEROIC MASTER CP/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 4 3.7 2-1/4
3 9 ATOMIC ENERGY TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 9 6.7 2-1/4
4 5 HAPPY UNITED P/TT B Avdulla · J Richards 2 2.9 3
5 2 GREAT STATE TT1 K De Melo · W Y So 3 21.0 3-1/4
6 6 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY CP/H/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz 8 13.0 3-1/2
7 12 HOSS B/TT B Thompson · P C Ng 10 57.0 3-1/2
8 10 MA COMET H/TT L Hewitson · J Richards 7 8.0 5
9 1 EXPLOSIVE WITNESS SR/XB A Badel · C Fownes 11 12.0 5-1/4
10 7 SUMMIT CHEERS TT A Atzeni · D J Hall 12 35.0 7
11 11 ROMANTIC NOVELIST M Chadwick · M Newnham 1 26.0 8
12 8 FORTUNE WHISKEY CP/H A Hamelin · C W Chang 6 87.0 13-1/2
0 ALLGREEKTOME L Ferraris · D A Hayes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KA YING SPIRIT2. HEROIC MASTER+2.25L3. ATOMIC ENERGY+2.25L4. HAPPY UNITED+3L5. GREAT STATE+3.25L6. CALIFORNIA DEEPLY+3.5L7. HOSS+3.5L8. MA COMET+5L9. EXPLOSIVE WITNESS+5.25L10. SUMMIT CHEERS+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick HAPPY UNITED (28.2%) finished 4th — the winner KA YING SPIRIT was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 HAPPY UNITED 28.2% 3.55 4
2 9 ATOMIC ENERGY 12.6% 7.91 3
3 10 MA COMET 10.4% 9.59 8
4 1 EXPLOSIVE WITNESS 10.1% 9.92 9
5 3 HEROIC MASTER 10.0% 10.00 2
6 6 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY 5.8% 17.36 6
7 2 GREAT STATE 5.7% 17.44 5
8 4 KA YING SPIRIT 5.5% 18.11 1
9 7 SUMMIT CHEERS 5.3% 19.04 10
10 12 HOSS 4.7% 21.33 7
11 11 ROMANTIC NOVELIST 0.9% 110.44 11
12 8 FORTUNE WHISKEY 0.8% 120.31 12
HAPPY UNITEDATOMIC ENERGYMA COMETEXPLOSIVE WITNESSHEROIC MASTERCALIFORNIA DEEPLYGREAT STATEKA YING SPIRIT — wonSUMMIT CHEERSHOSSROMANTIC NOVELISTFORTUNE WHISKEY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 308

PLACE

3 15.5

4 71.5

9 22

QUINELLA

3,4 572.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 178.5

3,9 46.5

4,9 307

FORECAST

4,3 1,539

TIERCE

4,3,9 9,700

TRIO

3,4,9 1,255

FIRST 4

3,4,5,9 411

QUARTET

4,3,9,5 19,980

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

5/7/3 595

5/7/4 20,714

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,7/3,4,9 22,715

8TH DOUBLE

7/3 45.5

7/4 1,732.5

SIX UP

6,8/2,4,7/5,7/5,9/3,7/3,4 3,096

8/2,4/5/5/7/4 6,015,899

1 [A S Cruz]

2 [A Badel]