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Sha Tin · 2024-02-25 · 14:01

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD 1600m Course A+3 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.36.04
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 LITTLE FAIRY Closed strongly B-/V1 1.36.04 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · P F Yiu 10 6.8 1/2
2 0 STAR OF GLORY Closed strongly B A Atzeni · C W Chang 11 12.0 1/2
3 0 BROTHER PEARL Closed strongly L Ferraris · C H Yip 5 7.9 1-1/2
4 0 SMART BEAUTY Closed strongly B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 12 7.3 2
5 0 GET THE MONIES B-/CP1/TT B Thompson · M Newnham 3 28.0 2-1/2
6 0 GO GO GO Closed strongly TT K De Melo · W Y So 2 10.0 2-3/4
7 0 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM H/TT K Teetan · Y S Tsui 4 9.1 3
8 0 SUPERB MOVE Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · C H Yip 1 5.7 3-1/4
9 0 DRAGON PRIDE Closed strongly B C L Chau · T P Yung 9 13.0 4-1/2
10 0 ANGELS HUNTER Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 13 23.0 7
11 0 FAITHFUL TRINITY Led early B/TT K H Chan · W Y So 8 70.0 7
12 0 CHARMANDER B/TT Z Purton · J Richards 7 5.8 7-1/2
13 0 MULAN B/TT L Hewitson · J Richards 6 122.0 17

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-02-25 was Class 5 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. LITTLE FAIRY, ridden by J McDonald and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1/2, with STAR OF GLORY second and BROTHER PEARL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.7 favourite SUPERB MOVE finished 8th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LITTLE FAIRY—2. STAR OF GLORY+0.5L3. BROTHER PEARL+1.5L4. SMART BEAUTY+2L5. GET THE MONIES+2.5L6. GO GO GO+2.75L7. ARTHUR'S KINGDOM+3L8. SUPERB MOVE+3.25L9. DRAGON PRIDE+4.5L10. ANGELS HUNTER+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick CHARMANDER (19.3%) finished 12th — the winner LITTLE FAIRY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 CHARMANDER 19.3% 5.19 12
2 0 SUPERB MOVE 18.8% 5.31 8
3 0 LITTLE FAIRY 13.3% 7.50 1
4 0 SMART BEAUTY 9.4% 10.63 4
5 0 GO GO GO 7.4% 13.58 6
6 0 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM 6.9% 14.52 7
7 0 BROTHER PEARL 5.9% 17.01 3
8 0 GET THE MONIES 4.7% 21.47 5
9 0 ANGELS HUNTER 4.4% 22.89 10
10 0 DRAGON PRIDE 4.1% 24.66 9
11 0 STAR OF GLORY 3.7% 27.29 2
12 0 FAITHFUL TRINITY 1.7% 59.48 11
13 0 MULAN 0.6% 173.11 13
CHARMANDERSUPERB MOVELITTLE FAIRY — wonSMART BEAUTYGO GO GOARTHUR'S KINGDOMBROTHER PEARLGET THE MONIESANGELS HUNTERDRAGON PRIDESTAR OF GLORYFAITHFUL TRINITYMULAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 68

PLACE

2 27.5

11 28

13 35.5

QUINELLA

2,13 414

QUINELLA PLACE

2,11 115.5

2,13 160.5

11,13 200

FORECAST

2,13 797

TIERCE

2,13,11 7,290

TRIO

2,11,13 1,330

FIRST 4

2,11,12,13 2,264

QUARTET

2,13,11,12 45,985

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

2/2 466.5

2/13 201