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Sha Tin · 2024-02-25 · 06:33

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-02-25 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. CHAMPION INSTINCT, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by D J Hall, won by 1-1/4, with SOLID SHALAA second and PACKING PROSPECT third. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.91
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 CHAMPION INSTINCT B 1.09.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · D J Hall 8 2.4 1-1/4
2 4 SOLID SHALAA B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 12 11.0 1-1/4
3 6 PACKING PROSPECT TT J McDonald · C S Shum 1 6.9 1-3/4
4 3 LIFELINE EXPRESS A Badel · J Size 9 6.9 2
5 12 CRAZY TREASURE B1 B Thompson · M Newnham 13 15.0 2-1/4
6 8 SOARING BRONCO Y L Chung · P C Ng 6 21.0 3-1/2
7 13 WINNING HEART B/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 11 9.8 3-3/4
8 11 HIGH RISE POWER B- K De Melo · K W Lui 7 22.0 4-1/4
9 9 YEE CHEONG RAIDER B1/TT1 A Hamelin · J Richards 3 24.0 5-3/4
10 1 MASTER STROKE L Ferraris · C H Yip 5 39.0 6-3/4
11 5 FAIRY HORSE H1/TT1 L Hewitson · C Fownes 14 147.0 8-3/4
12 14 E TALENT B2 H T Mo · K L Man 10 162.0 11-3/4
13 7 SAVVY ELEGANCE B/H/TT M Chadwick · D J Whyte 2 150.0 15-3/4
14 2 SPEED SWORD TT H Bowman · F C Lor 4 14.0 17

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHAMPION INSTINCT2. SOLID SHALAA+1.25L3. PACKING PROSPECT+1.75L4. LIFELINE EXPRESS+2L5. CRAZY TREASURE+2.25L6. SOARING BRONCO+3.5L7. WINNING HEART+3.75L8. HIGH RISE POWER+4.25L9. YEE CHEONG RAIDER+5.75L10. MASTER STROKE+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick LIFELINE EXPRESS (18.4%) finished 4th — the winner CHAMPION INSTINCT was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 LIFELINE EXPRESS 18.4% 5.43 4
2 13 WINNING HEART 15.8% 6.34 7
3 6 PACKING PROSPECT 15.3% 6.54 3
4 10 CHAMPION INSTINCT 13.6% 7.35 1
5 4 SOLID SHALAA 9.4% 10.62 2
6 8 SOARING BRONCO 8.6% 11.62 6
7 2 SPEED SWORD 6.6% 15.24 14
8 9 YEE CHEONG RAIDER 4.1% 24.39 9
9 5 FAIRY HORSE 3.9% 25.33 11
10 12 CRAZY TREASURE 1.4% 69.09 5
11 7 SAVVY ELEGANCE 0.9% 111.27 13
12 11 HIGH RISE POWER 0.8% 124.70 8
13 1 MASTER STROKE 0.7% 143.95 10
14 14 E TALENT 0.5% 216.37 12
LIFELINE EXPRESSWINNING HEARTPACKING PROSPECTCHAMPION INSTINCT — wonSOLID SHALAASOARING BRONCOSPEED SWORDYEE CHEONG RAIDERFAIRY HORSECRAZY TREASURESAVVY ELEGANCEHIGH RISE POWERMASTER STROKEE TALENT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 24

PLACE

4 31

6 26.5

10 12.5

QUINELLA

4,10 117.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 157

4,10 51.5

6,10 46.5

FORECAST

10,4 205

TIERCE

10,4,6 1,297

TRIO

4,6,10 301

FIRST 4

3,4,6,10 231

QUARTET

10,4,6,3 3,934

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,11,13/4,6,10 68,735

3RD DOUBLE

2/4 133

2/10 244