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Sha Tin · 2024-02-25 · 08:09

Race 7

Group 1 GOOD 2000m Course A+3 11 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-02-25 was Group 1 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. ROMANTIC WARRIOR, ridden by J McDonald and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with VOYAGE BUBBLE second and NIMBLE NIMBUS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 2.00.31
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 ROMANTIC WARRIOR Closed strongly TT 2.00.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · C S Shum 11 1.6 N
2 2 VOYAGE BUBBLE Closed strongly CP Z Purton · P F Yiu 7 4.0 N
3 8 NIMBLE NIMBUS Closed strongly V/TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu 1 24.0 3-1/4
4 3 STRAIGHT ARRON Closed strongly H Bowman · C Fownes 6 6.8 4
5 10 FIVE G PATCH Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 3 35.0 4-1/4
6 4 BEAUTY JOY Closed strongly H/TT K C Leung · A S Cruz 9 27.0 4-1/4
7 6 ENCOUNTERED TT K Teetan · K L Man 2 16.0 5-1/2
8 9 SENOR TOBA Closed strongly V-/B2/TT A Hamelin · C Fownes 4 80.0 7-1/2
9 5 SWORD POINT Led early CP L Hewitson · F C Lor 5 75.0 11
10 11 CHAMPION DRAGON H/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 8 78.0 13-3/4
11 7 MONEY CATCHER V L Ferraris · F C Lor 10 108.0 19

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ROMANTIC WARRIOR2. VOYAGE BUBBLE+0.05L3. NIMBLE NIMBUS+3.25L4. STRAIGHT ARRON+4L5. FIVE G PATCH+4.25L6. BEAUTY JOY+4.25L7. ENCOUNTERED+5.5L8. SENOR TOBA+7.5L9. SWORD POINT+11L10. CHAMPION DRAGON+13.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick ROMANTIC WARRIOR (36.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 ROMANTIC WARRIOR 36.6% 2.73 1
2 2 VOYAGE BUBBLE 27.6% 3.62 2
3 3 STRAIGHT ARRON 10.1% 9.91 4
4 8 NIMBLE NIMBUS 8.4% 11.87 3
5 6 ENCOUNTERED 4.9% 20.34 7
6 10 FIVE G PATCH 3.3% 30.16 5
7 4 BEAUTY JOY 2.9% 34.25 6
8 5 SWORD POINT 2.1% 47.23 9
9 11 CHAMPION DRAGON 1.8% 55.71 10
10 7 MONEY CATCHER 1.2% 80.81 11
11 9 SENOR TOBA 1.0% 101.82 8
ROMANTIC WARRIOR — wonVOYAGE BUBBLESTRAIGHT ARRONNIMBLE NIMBUSENCOUNTEREDFIVE G PATCHBEAUTY JOYSWORD POINTCHAMPION DRAGONMONEY CATCHERSENOR TOBA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 16.5

PLACE

1 11.5

2 14.5

8 34

QUINELLA

1,2 33

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 19.5

1,8 55

2,8 82

FORECAST

1,2 42

TIERCE

1,2,8 334

TRIO

1,2,8 145

FIRST 4

1,2,3,8 81

QUARTET

1,2,8,3 920

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

12/1 175

12/2 68