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Sha Tin · 2024-02-25 · 07:37

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-02-25 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. LOYAL BO BO, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by 2-3/4, with AEROINVINCIBLE second and JOY OF SPRING third. The winner led throughout. The 2.6 favourite SMART FIGHTER finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.21.78
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 LOYAL BO BO Wire to wire SR 1.21.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor 13 5.6 2-3/4
2 6 AEROINVINCIBLE Closed strongly SR1 A Atzeni · P C Ng 1 16.0 2-3/4
3 3 JOY OF SPRING Closed strongly TT H Bowman · C Fownes 10 14.0 3-3/4
4 1 SECOND TO NONE L Hewitson · K W Lui 11 10.0 5
5 10 SMART FIGHTER TT K Teetan · P F Yiu 3 2.6 5-1/2
6 13 CIRCUIT NINE Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · W K Mo 12 12.0 5-3/4
7 14 NINJA DERBY XB-/TT1 Y L Chung · A S Cruz 9 90.0 6
8 5 SNOWALOT Closed strongly B M Chadwick · D A Hayes 6 18.0 6-1/4
9 4 PANDA LEGEND TT K De Melo · W Y So 5 6.9 6-3/4
10 8 BALLISTIC WIN C L Chau · T P Yung 14 29.0 7-1/4
11 2 CIRCUIT MIGHTY TT A Badel · K L Man 8 14.0 8-3/4
12 7 FOREMOST TEDDY Closed strongly B/TT B Thompson · C S Shum 7 108.0 10
13 11 FLYING ROMANTIC Z Purton · D J Hall 4 44.0 14
14 9 RAINBOW DELIGHT PC-/B1 L Ferraris · D J Whyte 2 149.0 15
0 TOP SCORER Z Purton · J Size

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LOYAL BO BO2. AEROINVINCIBLE+2.75L3. JOY OF SPRING+3.75L4. SECOND TO NONE+5L5. SMART FIGHTER+5.5L6. CIRCUIT NINE+5.75L7. NINJA DERBY+6L8. SNOWALOT+6.25L9. PANDA LEGEND+6.75L10. BALLISTIC WIN+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SMART FIGHTER (30.4%) finished 5th — the winner LOYAL BO BO was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 SMART FIGHTER 30.4% 3.29 5
2 1 SECOND TO NONE 11.0% 9.10 4
3 6 AEROINVINCIBLE 10.8% 9.22 2
4 12 LOYAL BO BO 7.9% 12.64 1
5 4 PANDA LEGEND 7.2% 13.84 9
6 8 BALLISTIC WIN 7.1% 14.03 10
7 5 SNOWALOT 5.5% 18.34 8
8 13 CIRCUIT NINE 5.1% 19.53 6
9 3 JOY OF SPRING 4.9% 20.24 3
10 2 CIRCUIT MIGHTY 3.7% 26.70 11
11 11 FLYING ROMANTIC 2.8% 36.06 13
12 7 FOREMOST TEDDY 1.6% 63.75 12
13 14 NINJA DERBY 1.4% 69.43 7
14 9 RAINBOW DELIGHT 0.5% 200.25 14
SMART FIGHTERSECOND TO NONEAEROINVINCIBLELOYAL BO BO — wonPANDA LEGENDBALLISTIC WINSNOWALOTCIRCUIT NINEJOY OF SPRINGCIRCUIT MIGHTYFLYING ROMANTICFOREMOST TEDDYNINJA DERBYRAINBOW DELIGHT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 56.5

PLACE

3 37.5

6 44

12 22

QUINELLA

6,12 527.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 318

3,12 178.5

6,12 149.5

FORECAST

12,6 849

TIERCE

12,6,3 13,967

TRIO

3,6,12 2,847

FIRST 4

1,3,6,12 4,966

QUARTET

12,6,3,1 120,391

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

6,7,10/3,6,12 97,808

5TH DOUBLE

7/6 65.5

7/12 457

TRIPLE TRIO

4,6,10/6,7,10/3,6,12 2,624,100

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4,6,10/6,7,10/Any Combination 959