Happy Valley · 2024-03-06
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-03-06 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. COLONEL, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by P F Yiu, won by SH, with YOUNG HORIZON second and VIVA A LA third. Victory came as the 3.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | COLONEL V 1.10.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · P F Yiu | L Ferraris | P F Yiu | 3 | 3.9 | SH |
| 2 | 7 | YOUNG HORIZON K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 2 | 5.0 | SH |
| 3 | 10 | VIVA A LA B/H/TT A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 6 | 5.2 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 2 | WIND SPEEDER B C L Chau · Y S Tsui | C L Chau | Y S Tsui | 7 | 14.0 | 1 |
| 5 | 12 | NOIR RIDER XB-/B M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 4 | 24.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 1 | RATTAN WORLD B/TT A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 1 | 7.6 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | H Z TOURBILLON TT H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | 12 | 30.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | NORDIC COMBINED B/TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 5 | 10.0 | 7 |
| 9 | 11 | DEVIL AND GOLD B Thompson · C H Yip | B Thompson | C H Yip | 8 | 20.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 5 | DAILY TROPHY P1/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 9 | 24.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 4 | SONIC BOOM B/XB/TT H Bowman · K H Ting | H Bowman | K H Ting | 10 | 18.0 | 9 |
| 12 | 8 | GENERAL ACE CP K De Melo · K W Lui | K De Melo | K W Lui | 11 | 18.0 | 10-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | COLONEL | 14.8% | 6.77 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | NORDIC COMBINED | 13.9% | 7.22 | 8 |
| 3 | 1 | RATTAN WORLD | 13.8% | 7.27 | 6 |
| 4 | 4 | SONIC BOOM | 10.2% | 9.79 | 11 |
| 5 | 10 | VIVA A LA | 9.8% | 10.17 | 3 |
| 6 | 5 | DAILY TROPHY | 9.0% | 11.15 | 10 |
| 7 | 7 | YOUNG HORIZON | 8.6% | 11.60 | 2 |
| 8 | 9 | H Z TOURBILLON | 6.2% | 16.20 | 7 |
| 9 | 2 | WIND SPEEDER | 6.1% | 16.42 | 4 |
| 10 | 8 | GENERAL ACE | 3.6% | 28.06 | 12 |
| 11 | 12 | NOIR RIDER | 2.5% | 39.57 | 5 |
| 12 | 11 | DEVIL AND GOLD | 1.6% | 61.78 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 39
PLACE
3 17
7 16.5
10 19
QUINELLA
3,7 112
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 44
3,10 43
7,10 56.5
FORECAST
3,7 205
TIERCE
3,7,10 808
TRIO
3,7,10 191
FIRST 4
2,3,7,10 625
QUARTET
3,7,10,2 11,271