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Happy Valley · 2024-03-06

Race 4

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B 9 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-03-06 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. COLOURFUL EMPEROR, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1/2, with ACT OF FAITH second and HARMONY N BLESSED third. Victory came as the 3.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.10.12
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 COLOURFUL EMPEROR TT 1.10.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz 7 3.6 1/2
2 6 ACT OF FAITH B B Avdulla · J Size 8 10.0 1/2
3 1 HARMONY N BLESSED B-/CP1/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes 2 5.7 3
4 3 LIGHTNING BOLT TT H Bowman · C S Shum 4 7.3 3-3/4
5 8 MEGA BONUS V A Badel · P F Yiu 9 21.0 3-3/4
6 2 ATOMIC FORCE H Bentley · C Fownes 5 4.1 4-1/4
7 4 LUCKY ARCHANGEL B/XB C L Chau · F C Lor 1 9.7 4-1/2
8 7 BEAUTY GLORY CP/H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 6 9.1 4-1/2
9 9 ROMANTIC NOVELIST XB1/TT1 M Chadwick · M Newnham 3 31.0 5-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. COLOURFUL EMPEROR2. ACT OF FAITH+0.5L3. HARMONY N BLESSED+3L4. LIGHTNING BOLT+3.75L5. MEGA BONUS+3.75L6. ATOMIC FORCE+4.25L7. LUCKY ARCHANGEL+4.5L8. BEAUTY GLORY+4.5L9. ROMANTIC NOVELIST+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick COLOURFUL EMPEROR (24.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 COLOURFUL EMPEROR 24.3% 4.11 1
2 3 LIGHTNING BOLT 13.4% 7.48 4
3 6 ACT OF FAITH 12.7% 7.85 2
4 1 HARMONY N BLESSED 12.7% 7.87 3
5 7 BEAUTY GLORY 9.2% 10.89 8
6 2 ATOMIC FORCE 8.8% 11.36 6
7 8 MEGA BONUS 8.7% 11.50 5
8 4 LUCKY ARCHANGEL 8.5% 11.71 7
9 9 ROMANTIC NOVELIST 1.7% 59.79 9
COLOURFUL EMPEROR — wonLIGHTNING BOLTACT OF FAITHHARMONY N BLESSEDBEAUTY GLORYATOMIC FORCEMEGA BONUSLUCKY ARCHANGELROMANTIC NOVELIST

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 36.5

PLACE

1 16.5

5 15.5

6 30

QUINELLA

5,6 181

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 38

1,6 89

5,6 60

FORECAST

5,6 284

TIERCE

5,6,1 1,138

TRIO

1,5,6 245

FIRST 4

1,3,5,6 438

QUARTET

5,6,1,3 8,292

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

4/5 239

4/6 89