Happy Valley · 2024-03-06
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2024-03-06 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. STRONGEST BOY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by N, with CORDYCEPS ONE second and CAN'T GO WONG third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite SURE JOYFUL finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly B/TT 1.41.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 6 | 4.1 | N |
| 2 | 4 | CORDYCEPS ONE Led early H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 5 | 6.2 | N |
| 3 | 10 | CAN'T GO WONG Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 9 | 12.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 12 | UNITED ENDEAVORS H/TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 1 | 7.6 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | PO ON WAY Closed strongly B M Chadwick · K H Ting | M Chadwick | K H Ting | 12 | 21.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 2 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly XB K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 3 | 27.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 3 | SURE JOYFUL H Bowman · P F Yiu | H Bowman | P F Yiu | 7 | 3.1 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 1 | D STAR Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 11 | 18.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | CHEONG FAT H/PC B Avdulla · C W Chang | B Avdulla | C W Chang | 10 | 20.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | RIGHT HONOURABLE B/XB B Thompson · M Newnham | B Thompson | M Newnham | 2 | 39.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 5 | TAKE ACTION P K C Leung · J Size | K C Leung | J Size | 8 | 13.0 | 8 |
| — | 7 | STARSHIP EIGHTY A Hamelin · P C Ng | A Hamelin | P C Ng | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | STRONGEST BOY | 38.2% | 2.62 | 1 |
| 2 | 12 | UNITED ENDEAVORS | 12.5% | 7.98 | 4 |
| 3 | 3 | SURE JOYFUL | 12.4% | 8.04 | 7 |
| 4 | 5 | TAKE ACTION | 8.2% | 12.26 | 11 |
| 5 | 4 | CORDYCEPS ONE | 6.8% | 14.75 | 2 |
| 6 | 10 | CAN'T GO WONG | 5.7% | 17.44 | 3 |
| 7 | 1 | D STAR | 4.5% | 22.41 | 8 |
| 8 | 9 | PO ON WAY | 3.4% | 29.58 | 5 |
| 9 | 6 | CHEONG FAT | 3.3% | 30.02 | 9 |
| 10 | 2 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE | 2.8% | 35.50 | 6 |
| 11 | 11 | RIGHT HONOURABLE | 2.2% | 45.54 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 41.5
PLACE
4 20
8 16.5
10 34.5
QUINELLA
4,8 150
QUINELLA PLACE
4,8 52
4,10 105.5
8,10 79
FORECAST
8,4 274
TIERCE
8,4,10 2,367
TRIO
4,8,10 515
FIRST 4
4,8,10,12 636
QUARTET
8,4,10,12 10,978
All pools (1 more)
7TH DOUBLE
2/4 150
2/8 289.5