Happy Valley · 2024-03-06
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2024-03-06 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. COURIER MAGIC, ridden by B Thompson and trained by J Richards, won by 1-1/2, with MASTER OF LUCK second and BIG TWO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite MEDIC ELITE finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | COURIER MAGIC Closed strongly B1 1.40.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Thompson · J Richards | B Thompson | J Richards | 3 | 41.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 6 | MASTER OF LUCK Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · M Newnham | B Avdulla | M Newnham | 12 | 19.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 4 | BIG TWO SR/XB/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 1 | 5.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | REGENCY HAPPY STAR Closed strongly CP/H/TT A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | 4 | 6.3 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 3 | MEDIC ELITE Closed strongly PC/TT H Bowman · P C Ng | H Bowman | P C Ng | 5 | 3.9 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | CHARMING STEED Led early E/V/XB/TT A Hamelin · C Fownes | A Hamelin | C Fownes | 8 | 8.4 | 5 |
| 7 | 11 | HANG'S CHOICE Closed strongly B/TT K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 10 | 24.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | STORMTROUPER Closed strongly E/XB Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 11 | 10.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 12 | MISTER ARM H H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 6 | 41.0 | 14-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | JAZZ CLUB M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 7 | 12.0 | 18-1/2 |
| 11 | 10 | BRILLIANT PIONEER CP/TT L Ferraris · P F Yiu | L Ferraris | P F Yiu | 2 | 6.0 | 20-3/4 |
| 12 | 9 | BAYVIEW STAR CP/TT C L Chau · W K Mo | C L Chau | W K Mo | 9 | 120.0 | 69 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | MEDIC ELITE | 20.6% | 4.86 | 5 |
| 2 | 8 | CHARMING STEED | 13.2% | 7.55 | 6 |
| 3 | 4 | BIG TWO | 11.9% | 8.41 | 3 |
| 4 | 1 | JAZZ CLUB | 11.7% | 8.58 | 10 |
| 5 | 2 | STORMTROUPER | 11.4% | 8.78 | 8 |
| 6 | 10 | BRILLIANT PIONEER | 11.3% | 8.83 | 11 |
| 7 | 6 | MASTER OF LUCK | 7.2% | 13.92 | 2 |
| 8 | 7 | REGENCY HAPPY STAR | 5.9% | 16.97 | 4 |
| 9 | 11 | HANG'S CHOICE | 4.2% | 23.84 | 7 |
| 10 | 5 | COURIER MAGIC | 1.0% | 97.66 | 1 |
| 11 | 9 | BAYVIEW STAR | 1.0% | 100.76 | 12 |
| 12 | 12 | MISTER ARM | 0.6% | 156.50 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 412.5
PLACE
4 19.5
5 96
6 53.5
QUINELLA
5,6 4,879.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 273
4,6 230
5,6 1,189
FORECAST
5,6 10,832
TIERCE
5,6,4 69,292
TRIO
4,5,6 7,495
FIRST 4
4,5,6,7 8,705
QUARTET
5,6,4,7 408,002
All pools (1 more)
1ST DOUBLE
3/5 1,845.5
3/6 331