Happy Valley · 2024-03-06
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-03-06 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. AMAZING TEENS, ridden by A Badel and trained by J Size, won by 3/4, with SERANGOON second and PEGASUS GENERAL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.1 favourite KYRUS UNICORN finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | AMAZING TEENS Closed strongly P-/H/TT 1.51.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 7 | 6.1 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 3 | SERANGOON Closed strongly CP/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz | H Bentley | A S Cruz | 11 | 9.2 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 5 | PEGASUS GENERAL Closed strongly V Y L Chung · K H Ting | Y L Chung | K H Ting | 8 | 8.7 | 1 |
| 4 | 9 | RUNNING AHEAD TT- C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 5 | 18.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 10 | KYRUS UNICORN B2 B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 3 | 5.1 | 3 |
| 6 | 2 | DARCI JOY Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 1 | 5.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 8 | TO INFINITY Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · J Richards | M Chadwick | J Richards | 10 | 21.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 7 | ROYAL PRIDE H1/TT M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 12 | 11.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 1 | ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE B/XB1/TT H Bowman · D A Hayes | H Bowman | D A Hayes | 4 | 6.5 | 8 |
| 10 | 11 | V LOVE YOU TT B Thompson · C S Shum | B Thompson | C S Shum | 2 | 23.0 | 8 |
| 11 | 12 | AROMATICA TT K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 9 | 49.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 6 | SUPER BABY Led early B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 6 | 19.0 | 14-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | KYRUS UNICORN | 18.4% | 5.42 | 5 |
| 2 | 3 | SERANGOON | 15.1% | 6.62 | 2 |
| 3 | 4 | AMAZING TEENS | 12.2% | 8.18 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | DARCI JOY | 9.2% | 10.86 | 6 |
| 5 | 6 | SUPER BABY | 8.7% | 11.45 | 12 |
| 6 | 1 | ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE | 8.2% | 12.18 | 9 |
| 7 | 5 | PEGASUS GENERAL | 7.8% | 12.90 | 3 |
| 8 | 9 | RUNNING AHEAD | 6.2% | 16.11 | 4 |
| 9 | 8 | TO INFINITY | 5.3% | 18.85 | 7 |
| 10 | 7 | ROYAL PRIDE | 4.3% | 23.07 | 8 |
| 11 | 12 | AROMATICA | 3.6% | 27.88 | 11 |
| 12 | 11 | V LOVE YOU | 0.9% | 113.88 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 61
PLACE
3 31.5
4 20.5
5 27.5
QUINELLA
3,4 259
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 88.5
3,5 138.5
4,5 98
FORECAST
4,3 518
TIERCE
4,3,5 2,701
TRIO
3,4,5 673
FIRST 4
3,4,5,9 2,706
QUARTET
4,3,5,9 59,339
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
4,5,6/3,4,5 1,278,038
2ND DOUBLE
5/3 786
5/4 2,288.5