Happy Valley · 2024-03-06
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2024-03-06 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY SOUL, ridden by K De Melo and trained by C S Shum, won by 2, with LUCKY PLANET second and HAPPY GOLF third. The 3.8 favourite FLYING PHANTOM finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | HAPPY SOUL CP/TT 1.10.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K De Melo · C S Shum | K De Melo | C S Shum | 2 | 6.3 | 2 |
| 2 | 11 | LUCKY PLANET B H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 9 | 8.0 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | HAPPY GOLF B Avdulla · F C Lor | B Avdulla | F C Lor | 4 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | LYRICAL MOTION B/TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 8 | 5.5 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | HERO STAR TT Y L Chung · K L Man | Y L Chung | K L Man | 12 | 15.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 2 | TOGEPI B/TT L Ferraris · W K Mo | L Ferraris | W K Mo | 5 | 9.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | JOYFUL LIFE CP/TT K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 10 | 11.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | FLYING PHANTOM H Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 6 | 3.8 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 4 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER B A Hamelin · K W Lui | A Hamelin | K W Lui | 11 | 57.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 5 | SERGEANT PEPPER C L Chau · Y S Tsui | C L Chau | Y S Tsui | 1 | 15.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 6 | TEAM HAPPY B1 A Badel · P C Ng | A Badel | P C Ng | 7 | 17.0 | 11 |
| 12 | 8 | MISTER FOX B Thompson · D J Hall | B Thompson | D J Hall | 3 | 60.0 | 15-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | LUCKY PLANET | 15.1% | 6.61 | 2 |
| 2 | 7 | FLYING PHANTOM | 13.1% | 7.61 | 8 |
| 3 | 3 | LYRICAL MOTION | 11.1% | 8.99 | 4 |
| 4 | 9 | HAPPY SOUL | 10.9% | 9.19 | 1 |
| 5 | 1 | HAPPY GOLF | 9.9% | 10.07 | 3 |
| 6 | 6 | TEAM HAPPY | 8.8% | 11.40 | 11 |
| 7 | 10 | JOYFUL LIFE | 7.9% | 12.68 | 7 |
| 8 | 2 | TOGEPI | 7.6% | 13.24 | 6 |
| 9 | 5 | SERGEANT PEPPER | 7.1% | 14.11 | 10 |
| 10 | 12 | HERO STAR | 3.6% | 27.76 | 5 |
| 11 | 4 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER | 3.5% | 28.53 | 9 |
| 12 | 8 | MISTER FOX | 1.4% | 71.14 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 63.5
PLACE
1 34.5
9 22
11 26.5
QUINELLA
9,11 270
QUINELLA PLACE
1,9 139.5
1,11 196
9,11 88.5
FORECAST
9,11 478
TIERCE
9,11,1 5,320
TRIO
1,9,11 1,078
FIRST 4
1,3,9,11 1,372
QUARTET
9,11,1,3 32,024
All pools (4 more)
2ND TREBLE
2/8/9 1,684
2/8/11 341
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
4,8,10/1,9,11 72,020
8TH DOUBLE
8/9 238
8/11 64
SIX UP
5,6/2,7/1,12/2,4/4,8/9,11 3,751
5/7/1/2/8/9 34,628
3 [H Bowman] —
3 [A S Cruz] —