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Happy Valley · 2024-03-06

Race 9

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2024-03-06 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY SOUL, ridden by K De Melo and trained by C S Shum, won by 2, with LUCKY PLANET second and HAPPY GOLF third. The 3.8 favourite FLYING PHANTOM finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.10.77
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 HAPPY SOUL CP/TT 1.10.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K De Melo · C S Shum 2 6.3 2
2 11 LUCKY PLANET B H Bentley · D J Whyte 9 8.0 2
3 1 HAPPY GOLF B Avdulla · F C Lor 4 12.0 2-1/2
4 3 LYRICAL MOTION B/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 8 5.5 2-3/4
5 12 HERO STAR TT Y L Chung · K L Man 12 15.0 3
6 2 TOGEPI B/TT L Ferraris · W K Mo 5 9.7 3-1/4
7 10 JOYFUL LIFE CP/TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 10 11.0 4-1/2
8 7 FLYING PHANTOM H Z Purton · J Size 6 3.8 4-1/2
9 4 HIGH RISE SOLDIER B A Hamelin · K W Lui 11 57.0 5-3/4
10 5 SERGEANT PEPPER C L Chau · Y S Tsui 1 15.0 7-1/4
11 6 TEAM HAPPY B1 A Badel · P C Ng 7 17.0 11
12 8 MISTER FOX B Thompson · D J Hall 3 60.0 15-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HAPPY SOUL2. LUCKY PLANET+2L3. HAPPY GOLF+2.5L4. LYRICAL MOTION+2.75L5. HERO STAR+3L6. TOGEPI+3.25L7. JOYFUL LIFE+4.5L8. FLYING PHANTOM+4.5L9. HIGH RISE SOLDIER+5.75L10. SERGEANT PEPPER+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick LUCKY PLANET (15.1%) finished 2nd — the winner HAPPY SOUL was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 LUCKY PLANET 15.1% 6.61 2
2 7 FLYING PHANTOM 13.1% 7.61 8
3 3 LYRICAL MOTION 11.1% 8.99 4
4 9 HAPPY SOUL 10.9% 9.19 1
5 1 HAPPY GOLF 9.9% 10.07 3
6 6 TEAM HAPPY 8.8% 11.40 11
7 10 JOYFUL LIFE 7.9% 12.68 7
8 2 TOGEPI 7.6% 13.24 6
9 5 SERGEANT PEPPER 7.1% 14.11 10
10 12 HERO STAR 3.6% 27.76 5
11 4 HIGH RISE SOLDIER 3.5% 28.53 9
12 8 MISTER FOX 1.4% 71.14 12
LUCKY PLANETFLYING PHANTOMLYRICAL MOTIONHAPPY SOUL — wonHAPPY GOLFTEAM HAPPYJOYFUL LIFETOGEPISERGEANT PEPPERHERO STARHIGH RISE SOLDIERMISTER FOX

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 63.5

PLACE

1 34.5

9 22

11 26.5

QUINELLA

9,11 270

QUINELLA PLACE

1,9 139.5

1,11 196

9,11 88.5

FORECAST

9,11 478

TIERCE

9,11,1 5,320

TRIO

1,9,11 1,078

FIRST 4

1,3,9,11 1,372

QUARTET

9,11,1,3 32,024

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

2/8/9 1,684

2/8/11 341

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

4,8,10/1,9,11 72,020

8TH DOUBLE

8/9 238

8/11 64

SIX UP

5,6/2,7/1,12/2,4/4,8/9,11 3,751

5/7/1/2/8/9 34,628

3 [H Bowman]

3 [A S Cruz]