Happy Valley · 2024-03-13

Race 2

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C 8 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2024-03-13 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY FAT CAT, ridden by M F Poon and trained by W K Mo, won by SH, with NICCONI COUNTY second and BEAUTY INFINITY third. The 1.6 favourite BEAUTY INFINITY finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.98

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	8	HAPPY FAT CAT TT 1.09.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · W K Mo	M F Poon	W K Mo	4	114 lb	17.0	SH
2	4	NICCONI COUNTY XB/TT K Teetan · C Fownes	K Teetan	C Fownes	1	124 lb	6.7	SH
3	3	BEAUTY INFINITY Z Purton · J Size	Z Purton	J Size	7	124 lb	1.6	1
4	1	CELESTIAL COLOURS B/TT L Ferraris · J Richards	L Ferraris	J Richards	5	135 lb	5.8	3-3/4
5	7	GOLDEN TITLE TT K De Melo · C S Shum	K De Melo	C S Shum	2	116 lb	96.0	4
6	6	RUN RUN COOL PC H Bentley · F C Lor	H Bentley	F C Lor	8	117 lb	30.0	5-1/2
7	2	SUPERB CAPITALIST H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz	Y L Chung	A S Cruz	6	127 lb	8.7	6-1/2
8	5	HONG KONG HALL TT A Badel · D J Hall	A Badel	D J Hall	3	119 lb	13.0	15-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick BEAUTY INFINITY (35.3%) finished 3rd — the winner HAPPY FAT CAT was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	3	BEAUTY INFINITY	35.3%	2.84	3	1.6
2	4	NICCONI COUNTY	20.4%	4.91	2	6.7
3	1	CELESTIAL COLOURS	16.2%	6.17	4	5.8
4	8	HAPPY FAT CAT	9.7%	10.32	1	17.0
5	5	HONG KONG HALL	8.1%	12.30	8	13.0
6	2	SUPERB CAPITALIST	7.5%	13.39	7	8.7
7	6	RUN RUN COOL	2.1%	47.43	6	30.0
8	7	GOLDEN TITLE	0.8%	131.11	5	96.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 179.5

PLACE

3 10.5

4 16

8 36.5

QUINELLA

4,8 407.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 18

3,8 65

4,8 82

FORECAST

8,4 981

TIERCE

8,4,3 2,147

TRIO

3,4,8 140

FIRST 4

1,3,4,8 104

QUARTET

8,4,3,1 5,744

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

2/4 39

2/8 809.5

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