Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2024-03-13

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course C 11 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-03-13 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. MASTER OF LUCK, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by M Newnham, won by N, with FOXHUNTER WAY second and BEAU GOSSE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.2 favourite PRECISION GOAL finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.41.21
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 MASTER OF LUCK Closed strongly TT 1.41.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · M Newnham 9 6.5 N
2 12 FOXHUNTER WAY Closed strongly M F Poon · K W Lui 1 10.0 N
3 1 BEAU GOSSE Closed strongly B/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 11 9.3 2-1/4
4 7 PRECISION GOAL Led early H/TT C L Chau · D A Hayes 2 5.2 3
5 4 SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 5 22.0 3-1/4
6 11 MIGHTY STAR Closed strongly B K De Melo · C W Chang 8 8.0 4-1/4
7 9 HAPPIHOOD CP/TT K C Leung · W K Mo 4 49.0 4-1/2
8 3 SUPERB MOVE B/TT Y L Chung · C H Yip 10 9.9 6
9 2 MEDIC ELITE PC/TT K Teetan · P C Ng 6 6.4 6-1/2
10 6 HAPPY JAI JAI TT Z Purton · T P Yung 3 6.3 8-1/4
11 8 ANGELS HUNTER B/TT A Atzeni · K L Man 7 18.0 8-3/4
10 FAITHFUL TRINITY M L Yeung · W Y So

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MASTER OF LUCK2. FOXHUNTER WAY+0.05L3. BEAU GOSSE+2.25L4. PRECISION GOAL+3L5. SUPERB DADDY+3.25L6. MIGHTY STAR+4.25L7. HAPPIHOOD+4.5L8. SUPERB MOVE+6L9. MEDIC ELITE+6.5L10. HAPPY JAI JAI+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MEDIC ELITE (16.3%) finished 9th — the winner MASTER OF LUCK was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 MEDIC ELITE 16.3% 6.15 9
2 7 PRECISION GOAL 14.9% 6.70 4
3 12 FOXHUNTER WAY 13.9% 7.20 2
4 5 MASTER OF LUCK 10.4% 9.62 1
5 3 SUPERB MOVE 10.0% 10.02 8
6 6 HAPPY JAI JAI 9.9% 10.12 10
7 1 BEAU GOSSE 7.2% 13.97 3
8 11 MIGHTY STAR 6.9% 14.40 6
9 4 SUPERB DADDY 5.3% 18.90 5
10 8 ANGELS HUNTER 3.7% 27.02 11
11 9 HAPPIHOOD 1.6% 64.11 7
MEDIC ELITEPRECISION GOALFOXHUNTER WAYMASTER OF LUCK — wonSUPERB MOVEHAPPY JAI JAIBEAU GOSSEMIGHTY STARSUPERB DADDYANGELS HUNTERHAPPIHOOD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 65

PLACE

1 34.5

5 24

12 29.5

QUINELLA

5,12 324.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 124

1,12 192

5,12 103.5

FORECAST

5,12 532

TIERCE

5,12,1 7,131

TRIO

1,5,12 1,138

FIRST 4

1,5,7,12 1,874

QUARTET

5,12,1,7 57,552

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,8/1,5,12 17,261

2ND DOUBLE

8/5 1,310

8/12 271.5