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Happy Valley · 2024-03-13

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2024-03-13 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. KING ECCELLENTE, ridden by H Bentley and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1-1/4, with HARMONY N HOME second and COLONEL third. The 3.7 favourite COLONEL finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.10.41
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 KING ECCELLENTE SR/XB 1.10.41 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · D J Whyte 12 13.0 1-1/4
2 11 HARMONY N HOME M F Poon · C S Shum 7 24.0 1-1/4
3 10 COLONEL V M Chadwick · P F Yiu 1 3.7 2-1/2
4 2 ERNEST FEELING B/TT A Hamelin · J Richards 5 7.9 2-1/2
5 5 KILINDINI XB/TT Y L Chung · W K Mo 2 5.1 3
6 8 SUPER EAGLE TT K Teetan · W Y So 3 4.0 3-1/4
7 12 TACTICAL COMMAND B A Badel · M Newnham 11 24.0 3-1/2
8 3 WOOD ON FIRE H-/TT H T Mo · C W Chang 10 91.0 4-1/4
9 7 MULTIDARLING TT C L Chau · T P Yung 8 10.0 4-1/2
10 1 HOSS B/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 6 14.0 5
11 9 ALLOY KING V M L Yeung · K H Ting 9 38.0 8
12 6 FIGHTING MAN XB/TT K De Melo · K W Lui 4 45.0 10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KING ECCELLENTE2. HARMONY N HOME+1.25L3. COLONEL+2.5L4. ERNEST FEELING+2.5L5. KILINDINI+3L6. SUPER EAGLE+3.25L7. TACTICAL COMMAND+3.5L8. WOOD ON FIRE+4.25L9. MULTIDARLING+4.5L10. HOSS+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SUPER EAGLE (21.1%) finished 6th — the winner KING ECCELLENTE was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 SUPER EAGLE 21.1% 4.73 6
2 5 KILINDINI 17.0% 5.87 5
3 10 COLONEL 14.9% 6.73 3
4 1 HOSS 9.2% 10.93 10
5 7 MULTIDARLING 8.8% 11.31 9
6 12 TACTICAL COMMAND 7.2% 13.88 7
7 2 ERNEST FEELING 6.2% 16.18 4
8 11 HARMONY N HOME 5.1% 19.59 2
9 4 KING ECCELLENTE 4.5% 22.06 1
10 9 ALLOY KING 4.0% 24.74 11
11 3 WOOD ON FIRE 1.3% 76.92 8
12 6 FIGHTING MAN 0.6% 162.20 12
SUPER EAGLEKILINDINICOLONELHOSSMULTIDARLINGTACTICAL COMMANDERNEST FEELINGHARMONY N HOMEKING ECCELLENTE — wonALLOY KINGWOOD ON FIREFIGHTING MAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 130

PLACE

4 35.5

10 14.5

11 58

QUINELLA

4,11 1,882

QUINELLA PLACE

4,10 110

4,11 480

10,11 156.5

FORECAST

4,11 2,736

TIERCE

4,11,10 19,096

TRIO

4,10,11 2,158

FIRST 4

2,4,10,11 4,183

QUARTET

4,11,10,2 137,680

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

5/3/4 3,315

5/3/11 789

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,8,9/4,10,11 97,428

4TH DOUBLE

3/4 338.5

3/11 134