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Happy Valley · 2024-03-13

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD 1200m Course C 11 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2024-03-13 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY CHARGE, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1/2, with TOMODACHI KOKOROE second and WONDER KIT third. Victory came as the 4.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.10.11
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 BEAUTY CHARGE H/TT 1.10.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · A S Cruz 6 4.2 1/2
2 4 TOMODACHI KOKOROE TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 5 8.8 1/2
3 8 WONDER KIT B A Atzeni · K W Lui 1 5.1 1/2
4 6 GUMMY GUMMY B C L Chau · T P Yung 11 11.0 3/4
5 3 MAJESTIC KNIGHT B E C W Wong · D J Whyte 7 10.0 1-1/4
6 9 COPARTNER AMBITION B/TT H Bentley · C S Shum 10 10.0 2-1/4
7 1 SEASONS WIT B/TT Y L Chung · J Richards 3 19.0 2-1/2
8 2 BUNDLE OF CHARM A Hamelin · J Size 8 9.8 2-3/4
9 7 BON'S A PEARLA B A Badel · P C Ng 2 5.3 3
10 10 ASTROLOGER SR- M L Yeung · K L Man 9 52.0 3-1/4
11 11 YOUTHFUL DEAL SR/TT M F Poon · F C Lor 4 39.0 4-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY CHARGE2. TOMODACHI KOKOROE+0.5L3. WONDER KIT+0.5L4. GUMMY GUMMY+0.75L5. MAJESTIC KNIGHT+1.25L6. COPARTNER AMBITION+2.25L7. SEASONS WIT+2.5L8. BUNDLE OF CHARM+2.75L9. BON'S A PEARLA+3L10. ASTROLOGER+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick WONDER KIT (18.5%) finished 3rd — the winner BEAUTY CHARGE was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 WONDER KIT 18.5% 5.41 3
2 4 TOMODACHI KOKOROE 15.6% 6.41 2
3 9 COPARTNER AMBITION 10.8% 9.28 6
4 7 BON'S A PEARLA 10.3% 9.74 9
5 6 GUMMY GUMMY 9.4% 10.65 4
6 3 MAJESTIC KNIGHT 7.8% 12.89 5
7 1 SEASONS WIT 7.4% 13.51 7
8 2 BUNDLE OF CHARM 6.8% 14.70 8
9 5 BEAUTY CHARGE 6.8% 14.76 1
10 11 YOUTHFUL DEAL 4.4% 22.59 11
11 10 ASTROLOGER 2.3% 43.35 10
WONDER KITTOMODACHI KOKOROECOPARTNER AMBITIONBON'S A PEARLAGUMMY GUMMYMAJESTIC KNIGHTSEASONS WITBUNDLE OF CHARMBEAUTY CHARGE — wonYOUTHFUL DEALASTROLOGER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 42

PLACE

4 27.5

5 17.5

8 19.5

QUINELLA

4,5 277.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 97.5

4,8 77

5,8 62

FORECAST

5,4 470

TIERCE

5,4,8 2,778

TRIO

4,5,8 474

FIRST 4

4,5,6,8 1,096

QUARTET

5,4,8,6 21,129

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

3/2/4 1,661

3/2/5 5,673

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,8,9/4,5,8 192,403

8TH DOUBLE

2/4 173.5

2/5 514.5

SIX UP

3/4/1/3/2/5 229,723

3,8/4,11/1,7/3,12/2,8/4,5 31,143

4 [H Bentley]

13 [M Newnham]