Sha Tin · 2024-03-16 · 14:31
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | CASA COSMO Closed strongly B/TT 1.47.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 3 | 16.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 2 | 0 | REACH GOAL Closed strongly TT M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 11 | 74.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 3 | 0 | DEVAS TWELVE Closed strongly TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 2 | 2.1 | 3-3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | FRUITY WARRIOR Closed strongly B1/TT B Avdulla · C Fownes | B Avdulla | C Fownes | 8 | 23.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 0 | SATIRICAL GLORY H B Thompson · D A Hayes | B Thompson | D A Hayes | 4 | 16.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 0 | FLYING SILVER Closed strongly TT E C W Wong · C S Shum | E C W Wong | C S Shum | 13 | 77.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly B K De Melo · C W Chang | K De Melo | C W Chang | 1 | 13.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 8 | 0 | SPECIAL HEDGE B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 6 | 11.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 0 | WINNING STEPS Closed strongly H/PC K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 10 | 12.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 0 | NINJA DERBY TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 7 | 17.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 0 | FOREVER GLORIOUS Led early B/TT K C Leung · K W Lui | K C Leung | K W Lui | 5 | 9.5 | 10 |
| 12 | 0 | CHATEAU PC1 A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 9 | 8.7 | 10-1/4 |
| 13 | 0 | CIRCUIT BLAZING TT A Atzeni · W K Mo | A Atzeni | W K Mo | 12 | 132.0 | 16-1/2 |
| 14 | 0 | FURY AND GOLD CP1 H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 14 | 47.0 | 35-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-16 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. CASA COSMO, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by J Richards, won by 2-3/4, with REACH GOAL second and DEVAS TWELVE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite DEVAS TWELVE finished 3rd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | DEVAS TWELVE | 38.6% | 2.59 | 3 |
| 2 | 0 | SATIRICAL GLORY | 10.9% | 9.15 | 5 |
| 3 | 0 | FOREVER GLORIOUS | 7.9% | 12.58 | 11 |
| 4 | 0 | FOREVER FOLKS | 5.8% | 17.33 | 7 |
| 5 | 0 | WINNING STEPS | 5.7% | 17.66 | 9 |
| 6 | 0 | SPECIAL HEDGE | 5.5% | 18.14 | 8 |
| 7 | 0 | FLYING SILVER | 5.0% | 19.88 | 6 |
| 8 | 0 | CASA COSMO | 4.8% | 20.74 | 1 |
| 9 | 0 | CHATEAU | 4.7% | 21.26 | 12 |
| 10 | 0 | REACH GOAL | 3.6% | 27.56 | 2 |
| 11 | 0 | FRUITY WARRIOR | 3.2% | 31.60 | 4 |
| 12 | 0 | NINJA DERBY | 3.0% | 32.98 | 10 |
| 13 | 0 | CIRCUIT BLAZING | 0.7% | 139.67 | 13 |
| 14 | 0 | FURY AND GOLD | 0.5% | 213.75 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 168
PLACE
1 13
5 152.5
10 33.5
QUINELLA
5,10 5,059
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 271
1,10 69.5
5,10 1,208
FORECAST
10,5 5,953
TIERCE
10,5,1 40,463
TRIO
1,5,10 3,940
FIRST 4
1,5,9,10 17,997
QUARTET
10,5,1,9 962,066
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,9/1,5,10 867,093
3RD DOUBLE
9/5 1,167.5
9/10 1,594.5