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Sha Tin · 2024-03-16 · 08:08

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-16 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SING DRAGON, ridden by K Teetan and trained by M Newnham, won by 1-1/4, with VICTORY MOMENTS second and FAST BUCK third. The 4.7 favourite VICTORY MOMENTS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.07.90
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 SING DRAGON 1.07.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · M Newnham 6 6.9 1-1/4
2 3 VICTORY MOMENTS SR/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 8 4.7 1-1/4
3 6 FAST BUCK PC B Avdulla · J Size 1 6.6 3-1/4
4 1 YELLOWFIN XB E C W Wong · K W Lui 12 7.3 3-1/4
5 7 GOOD BUDDY B/TT A Badel · D J Hall 4 10.0 4
6 8 SELF IMPROVEMENT B2/TT K C Leung · K L Man 3 7.9 4-1/4
7 12 MONTA FRUTTA H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 11 34.0 4-3/4
8 9 SKY FOREVER B/TT A Atzeni · K L Man 7 13.0 4-3/4
9 10 JOLLY RULER H-/TT2 M F Poon · P F Yiu 2 24.0 6-3/4
10 5 FIERY DIAMOND TT1 C L Chau · T P Yung 10 33.0 8
11 2 ARMOUR EAGLE PC/XB/TT A Hamelin · J Richards 9 44.0 15-1/2
12 4 SMOKEY BEAR B/XB/TT Z Purton · C W Chang 5 6.8 17-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SING DRAGON2. VICTORY MOMENTS+1.25L3. FAST BUCK+3.25L4. YELLOWFIN+3.25L5. GOOD BUDDY+4L6. SELF IMPROVEMENT+4.25L7. MONTA FRUTTA+4.75L8. SKY FOREVER+4.75L9. JOLLY RULER+6.75L10. FIERY DIAMOND+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SMOKEY BEAR (16.8%) finished 12th — the winner SING DRAGON was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 SMOKEY BEAR 16.8% 5.94 12
2 6 FAST BUCK 13.6% 7.36 3
3 3 VICTORY MOMENTS 11.3% 8.85 2
4 1 YELLOWFIN 11.2% 8.89 4
5 8 SELF IMPROVEMENT 7.8% 12.82 6
6 7 GOOD BUDDY 7.6% 13.15 5
7 9 SKY FOREVER 6.7% 14.83 8
8 10 JOLLY RULER 6.5% 15.45 9
9 5 FIERY DIAMOND 5.8% 17.26 10
10 11 SING DRAGON 5.6% 17.73 1
11 12 MONTA FRUTTA 3.6% 27.59 7
12 2 ARMOUR EAGLE 3.4% 29.71 11
SMOKEY BEARFAST BUCKVICTORY MOMENTSYELLOWFINSELF IMPROVEMENTGOOD BUDDYSKY FOREVERJOLLY RULERFIERY DIAMONDSING DRAGON — wonMONTA FRUTTAARMOUR EAGLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 69

PLACE

3 19

6 25

11 26.5

QUINELLA

3,11 231

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 66

3,11 94

6,11 88.5

FORECAST

11,3 558

TIERCE

11,3,6 3,131

TRIO

3,6,11 521

FIRST 4

1,3,6,11 820

QUARTET

11,3,6,1 21,255

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

2/3 28.5

2/11 527.5