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Sha Tin · 2024-03-16 · 08:04

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-16 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. IMA SINGLE MAN, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/2, with E LEGEND second and BEAUTY MISSILE third. The 4.0 favourite BEAUTY MISSILE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.08.83
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 IMA SINGLE MAN B-/H-/V1/TT 1.08.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz 3 9.5 1-1/2
2 11 E LEGEND K De Melo · K L Man 1 15.0 1-1/2
3 10 BEAUTY MISSILE PC A Hamelin · F C Lor 4 4.0 1-3/4
4 12 ENDEARED XB A Badel · J Size 10 4.9 1-3/4
5 2 SUPER FORTUNE H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 2 9.1 2-1/4
6 9 BEAUTY GLORY CP/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 7 16.0 3-1/2
7 1 ENTERPRISE ATTACK TT- K Teetan · K W Lui 11 12.0 4-1/2
8 8 PARTERRE B B Thompson · W Y So 8 24.0 5
9 6 SUNNY DARLING V/TT K C Leung · P C Ng 5 39.0 5-1/2
10 4 ACE VICTORY TT C L Chau · T P Yung 6 5.6 6
11 7 ORIENTAL SMOKE B/TT H Bentley · D A Hayes 9 12.0 6
12 5 SUMMIT CHEERS TT A Atzeni · D J Hall 12 65.0 16-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. IMA SINGLE MAN2. E LEGEND+1.5L3. BEAUTY MISSILE+1.75L4. ENDEARED+1.75L5. SUPER FORTUNE+2.25L6. BEAUTY GLORY+3.5L7. ENTERPRISE ATTACK+4.5L8. PARTERRE+5L9. SUNNY DARLING+5.5L10. ACE VICTORY+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick BEAUTY MISSILE (15.4%) finished 3rd — the winner IMA SINGLE MAN was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 BEAUTY MISSILE 15.4% 6.51 3
2 4 ACE VICTORY 14.3% 7.00 10
3 1 ENTERPRISE ATTACK 13.8% 7.27 7
4 7 ORIENTAL SMOKE 12.8% 7.83 11
5 2 SUPER FORTUNE 9.4% 10.66 5
6 12 ENDEARED 8.1% 12.34 4
7 8 PARTERRE 7.6% 13.21 8
8 11 E LEGEND 5.7% 17.44 2
9 9 BEAUTY GLORY 5.2% 19.36 6
10 5 SUMMIT CHEERS 4.0% 25.26 12
11 3 IMA SINGLE MAN 2.9% 34.60 1
12 6 SUNNY DARLING 1.0% 97.82 9
BEAUTY MISSILEACE VICTORYENTERPRISE ATTACKORIENTAL SMOKESUPER FORTUNEENDEAREDPARTERREE LEGENDBEAUTY GLORYSUMMIT CHEERSIMA SINGLE MAN — wonSUNNY DARLING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 95.5

PLACE

3 41

10 18

11 40

QUINELLA

3,11 800

QUINELLA PLACE

3,10 86

3,11 254

10,11 106.5

FORECAST

3,11 1,574

TIERCE

3,11,10 6,784

TRIO

3,10,11 960

FIRST 4

3,10,11,12 1,095

QUARTET

3,11,10,12 38,708

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

9/10/3 17,402

9/10/11 4,822

4TH DOUBLE

10/3 957

10/11 592