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Happy Valley · 2024-03-20 · 10:42

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1800m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-03-20 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. DRAGON PRIDE, ridden by A Badel and trained by T P Yung, won by 1-1/4, with SUPERB DADDY second and CIRCUIT ELITE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite SMART BEAUTY finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.50.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 DRAGON PRIDE Closed strongly B- 1.50.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · T P Yung 3 16.0 1-1/4
2 7 SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly TT Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 7 14.0 1-1/4
3 8 CIRCUIT ELITE Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · W K Mo 8 32.0 1-1/2
4 11 LOYAL AMBITION K Teetan · C Fownes 11 7.3 1-3/4
5 1 NICE BIRDIE Closed strongly TT C L Chau · C S Shum 5 13.0 2-3/4
6 6 SMART BEAUTY Closed strongly B/H/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 4 2.9 2-3/4
7 10 DIAMOND WINNER Closed strongly H A Hamelin · J Size 1 4.8 3-1/4
8 2 CLASSIC ARCHI Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte 2 40.0 3-1/2
9 12 SUPER HORNET B/XB/TT M Chadwick · J Richards 10 16.0 4
10 9 FASTPASS B/SR/XB A Atzeni · K W Lui 12 57.0 4-1/4
11 5 GO GO GO TT Z Purton · W Y So 6 6.9 4-1/4
12 3 HORSE OF GOOD LUCK Led early H Bentley · C H Yip 9 23.0 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DRAGON PRIDE2. SUPERB DADDY+1.25L3. CIRCUIT ELITE+1.5L4. LOYAL AMBITION+1.75L5. NICE BIRDIE+2.75L6. SMART BEAUTY+2.75L7. DIAMOND WINNER+3.25L8. CLASSIC ARCHI+3.5L9. SUPER HORNET+4L10. FASTPASS+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick DIAMOND WINNER (20.5%) finished 7th — the winner DRAGON PRIDE was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 DIAMOND WINNER 20.5% 4.87 7
2 6 SMART BEAUTY 19.1% 5.24 6
3 5 GO GO GO 15.6% 6.40 11
4 1 NICE BIRDIE 9.5% 10.57 5
5 11 LOYAL AMBITION 7.0% 14.21 4
6 4 DRAGON PRIDE 6.0% 16.78 1
7 7 SUPERB DADDY 5.9% 16.97 2
8 3 HORSE OF GOOD LUCK 5.1% 19.80 12
9 9 FASTPASS 3.6% 27.69 10
10 2 CLASSIC ARCHI 3.1% 32.73 8
11 12 SUPER HORNET 2.4% 41.82 9
12 8 CIRCUIT ELITE 2.3% 44.01 3
DIAMOND WINNERSMART BEAUTYGO GO GONICE BIRDIELOYAL AMBITIONDRAGON PRIDE — wonSUPERB DADDYHORSE OF GOOD LUCKFASTPASSCLASSIC ARCHISUPER HORNETCIRCUIT ELITE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 164

PLACE

4 38

7 39.5

8 91

QUINELLA

4,7 1,079.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 319

4,8 503

7,8 603

FORECAST

4,7 2,083

TIERCE

4,7,8 70,134

TRIO

4,7,8 8,825

FIRST 4

4,7,8,11 10,971

QUARTET

4,7,8,11 305,408