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Happy Valley · 2024-03-20 · 11:42

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-03-20 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. VIVA A LA, ridden by M F Poon and trained by K L Man, won by 1-3/4, with DOUBLE SHOW second and DEVIL AND GOLD third. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.10.59
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 VIVA A LA H-/B/TT 1.10.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · K L Man 2 2.5 1-3/4
2 5 DOUBLE SHOW B/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte 8 15.0 1-3/4
3 11 DEVIL AND GOLD B M Chadwick · C H Yip 1 13.0 2-1/2
4 9 EASY TWO H/V/TT C L Chau · K H Ting 5 19.0 3-3/4
5 1 WIND SPEEDER B Z Purton · Y S Tsui 9 7.8 3-3/4
6 4 GENERAL ACE CP K De Melo · K W Lui 7 15.0 5-1/4
7 10 CIRCUIT SPLENDOR K Teetan · T P Yung 4 8.5 5-1/4
8 7 HAPPILY FRIENDS V B Thompson · W Y So 12 64.0 6
9 2 GOOD VIEW GLORY A Hamelin · C H Yip 6 44.0 6-1/2
10 3 SUPER ELITE CP/H H Bentley · P F Yiu 3 5.7 6-3/4
11 12 NOIR RIDER B A Atzeni · C W Chang 11 47.0 8
12 6 AUGUST MOON BO/TT Y L Chung · J Richards 10 12.0 13-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VIVA A LA2. DOUBLE SHOW+1.75L3. DEVIL AND GOLD+2.5L4. EASY TWO+3.75L5. WIND SPEEDER+3.75L6. GENERAL ACE+5.25L7. CIRCUIT SPLENDOR+5.25L8. HAPPILY FRIENDS+6L9. GOOD VIEW GLORY+6.5L10. SUPER ELITE+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick WIND SPEEDER (16.0%) finished 5th — the winner VIVA A LA was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 WIND SPEEDER 16.0% 6.25 5
2 8 VIVA A LA 13.9% 7.19 1
3 10 CIRCUIT SPLENDOR 13.8% 7.26 7
4 3 SUPER ELITE 12.7% 7.90 10
5 5 DOUBLE SHOW 7.6% 13.17 2
6 9 EASY TWO 6.7% 14.99 4
7 11 DEVIL AND GOLD 6.6% 15.08 3
8 6 AUGUST MOON 6.1% 16.29 12
9 12 NOIR RIDER 5.3% 18.75 11
10 2 GOOD VIEW GLORY 4.0% 25.10 9
11 4 GENERAL ACE 3.7% 26.73 6
12 7 HAPPILY FRIENDS 3.6% 28.04 8
WIND SPEEDERVIVA A LA — wonCIRCUIT SPLENDORSUPER ELITEDOUBLE SHOWEASY TWODEVIL AND GOLDAUGUST MOONNOIR RIDERGOOD VIEW GLORYGENERAL ACEHAPPILY FRIENDS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 25

PLACE

5 33.5

8 13

11 35

QUINELLA

5,8 184.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 73

5,11 232.5

8,11 62

FORECAST

8,5 297

TIERCE

8,5,11 2,500

TRIO

5,8,11 612

FIRST 4

5,8,9,11 1,981

QUARTET

8,5,11,9 27,951

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,6/5,8,11 485,019

2ND DOUBLE

4/5 135.5

4/8 566