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Happy Valley · 2024-03-20 · 13:47

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2024-03-20 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. COURIER MAGIC, ridden by B Thompson and trained by J Richards, won by N, with STRONGEST BOY second and D STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite STRONGEST BOY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.40.61
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 COURIER MAGIC Closed strongly B 1.40.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Thompson · J Richards 9 17.0 N
2 6 STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 1 2.7 N
3 1 D STAR Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 11 34.0 3/4
4 4 DRAGON STAR V/XB E C W Wong · P C Ng 10 7.1 1-3/4
5 10 LITTLE FAIRY V A Badel · P F Yiu 3 4.4 2-1/4
6 2 GALVANIC TT K Teetan · C Fownes 7 6.3 2-1/4
7 11 YEABOI Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · C H Yip 6 19.0 2-1/2
8 8 YOUNG VICTORY B/TT C L Chau · W Y So 2 26.0 3-1/4
9 7 ME TIME Closed strongly SR1/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 12 47.0 3-1/2
10 5 WIN WIN FIGHTER B L Hewitson · K W Lui 5 17.0 5-1/2
11 9 UP AND UP CP-/B2 K De Melo · C S Shum 8 46.0 6-1/2
12 3 U S S CONSTITUTION Led early B/TT B Avdulla · J Size 4 21.0 10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. COURIER MAGIC2. STRONGEST BOY+0.05L3. D STAR+0.75L4. DRAGON STAR+1.75L5. LITTLE FAIRY+2.25L6. GALVANIC+2.25L7. YEABOI+2.5L8. YOUNG VICTORY+3.25L9. ME TIME+3.5L10. WIN WIN FIGHTER+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick STRONGEST BOY (33.0%) finished 2nd — the winner COURIER MAGIC was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 STRONGEST BOY 33.0% 3.03 2
2 10 LITTLE FAIRY 15.0% 6.69 5
3 2 GALVANIC 13.4% 7.46 6
4 5 WIN WIN FIGHTER 9.5% 10.52 10
5 4 DRAGON STAR 7.7% 12.98 4
6 11 YEABOI 5.2% 19.19 7
7 1 D STAR 3.4% 29.00 3
8 8 YOUNG VICTORY 3.4% 29.11 8
9 12 COURIER MAGIC 3.4% 29.60 1
10 3 U S S CONSTITUTION 2.6% 37.90 12
11 7 ME TIME 2.3% 44.43 9
12 9 UP AND UP 1.1% 95.11 11
STRONGEST BOYLITTLE FAIRYGALVANICWIN WIN FIGHTERDRAGON STARYEABOID STARYOUNG VICTORYCOURIER MAGIC — wonU S S CONSTITUTIONME TIMEUP AND UP

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 171.5

PLACE

1 66

6 13

12 47.5

QUINELLA

6,12 218

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 149

1,12 593.5

6,12 81.5

FORECAST

12,6 669

TIERCE

12,6,1 9,865

TRIO

1,6,12 1,448

FIRST 4

1,4,6,12 2,757

QUARTET

12,6,1,4 84,499

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,7,12/1,6,12 421,337

6TH DOUBLE

2/6 82

2/12 2,207.5

TRIPLE TRIO

1,5,10/2,7,12/1,6,12 4,358,459

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,5,10/2,7,12/Any Combination 3,891