Happy Valley · 2024-03-20 · 13:47
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2024-03-20 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. COURIER MAGIC, ridden by B Thompson and trained by J Richards, won by N, with STRONGEST BOY second and D STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite STRONGEST BOY finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | COURIER MAGIC Closed strongly B 1.40.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Thompson · J Richards | B Thompson | J Richards | 9 | 17.0 | N |
| 2 | 6 | STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 1 | 2.7 | N |
| 3 | 1 | D STAR Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 11 | 34.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | DRAGON STAR V/XB E C W Wong · P C Ng | E C W Wong | P C Ng | 10 | 7.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | LITTLE FAIRY V A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 3 | 4.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | GALVANIC TT K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 7 | 6.3 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 11 | YEABOI Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 6 | 19.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | YOUNG VICTORY B/TT C L Chau · W Y So | C L Chau | W Y So | 2 | 26.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 7 | ME TIME Closed strongly SR1/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 12 | 47.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 5 | WIN WIN FIGHTER B L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 5 | 17.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 9 | UP AND UP CP-/B2 K De Melo · C S Shum | K De Melo | C S Shum | 8 | 46.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 3 | U S S CONSTITUTION Led early B/TT B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 4 | 21.0 | 10-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | STRONGEST BOY | 33.0% | 3.03 | 2 |
| 2 | 10 | LITTLE FAIRY | 15.0% | 6.69 | 5 |
| 3 | 2 | GALVANIC | 13.4% | 7.46 | 6 |
| 4 | 5 | WIN WIN FIGHTER | 9.5% | 10.52 | 10 |
| 5 | 4 | DRAGON STAR | 7.7% | 12.98 | 4 |
| 6 | 11 | YEABOI | 5.2% | 19.19 | 7 |
| 7 | 1 | D STAR | 3.4% | 29.00 | 3 |
| 8 | 8 | YOUNG VICTORY | 3.4% | 29.11 | 8 |
| 9 | 12 | COURIER MAGIC | 3.4% | 29.60 | 1 |
| 10 | 3 | U S S CONSTITUTION | 2.6% | 37.90 | 12 |
| 11 | 7 | ME TIME | 2.3% | 44.43 | 9 |
| 12 | 9 | UP AND UP | 1.1% | 95.11 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 171.5
PLACE
1 66
6 13
12 47.5
QUINELLA
6,12 218
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 149
1,12 593.5
6,12 81.5
FORECAST
12,6 669
TIERCE
12,6,1 9,865
TRIO
1,6,12 1,448
FIRST 4
1,4,6,12 2,757
QUARTET
12,6,1,4 84,499
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,7,12/1,6,12 421,337
6TH DOUBLE
2/6 82
2/12 2,207.5
TRIPLE TRIO
1,5,10/2,7,12/1,6,12 4,358,459
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,5,10/2,7,12/Any Combination 3,891