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Happy Valley · 2024-03-20 · 11:12

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2024-03-20 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. COLOURFUL PRINCE, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by D J Whyte, won by 4-1/4, with SERGEANT PEPPER second and SKY SONG third. The 5.9 favourite SERGEANT PEPPER finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.56.68
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 COLOURFUL PRINCE SR/TT 0.56.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · D J Whyte 11 8.3 4-1/4
2 6 SERGEANT PEPPER E C W Wong · Y S Tsui 5 5.9 4-1/4
3 1 SKY SONG B1/TT1 B Avdulla · C Fownes 1 17.0 4-1/2
4 5 OVERSUBSCRIBED XB A Badel · D J Hall 2 9.1 4-3/4
5 9 LEAN MASTER B/TT H Bentley · C H Yip 12 9.6 5-1/2
6 12 KING INVINCIBLE B/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 9 8.7 5-3/4
7 8 G ONE EXCELLENT TT C L Chau · C S Shum 6 11.0 6-1/4
8 11 CIRCUIT SEVEN B/H/TT M F Poon · W K Mo 8 20.0 6-1/4
9 2 SPICY SPANGLE Z Purton · P C Ng 4 6.2 8-3/4
10 10 PHILOS H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 7 58.0 8-3/4
11 7 SUPER FAST DRAGON B/XB/TT A Hamelin · J Richards 10 6.7 9-3/4
12 3 UNIVERSAL BLAZE P1 K Teetan · J Size 3 13.0 13-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. COLOURFUL PRINCE2. SERGEANT PEPPER+4.25L3. SKY SONG+4.5L4. OVERSUBSCRIBED+4.75L5. LEAN MASTER+5.5L6. KING INVINCIBLE+5.75L7. G ONE EXCELLENT+6.25L8. CIRCUIT SEVEN+6.25L9. SPICY SPANGLE+8.75L10. PHILOS+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SPICY SPANGLE (21.2%) finished 9th — the winner COLOURFUL PRINCE was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 SPICY SPANGLE 21.2% 4.72 9
2 3 UNIVERSAL BLAZE 12.4% 8.06 12
3 7 SUPER FAST DRAGON 9.2% 10.84 11
4 9 LEAN MASTER 9.1% 11.00 5
5 5 OVERSUBSCRIBED 8.9% 11.20 4
6 11 CIRCUIT SEVEN 8.3% 12.02 8
7 6 SERGEANT PEPPER 8.3% 12.07 2
8 8 G ONE EXCELLENT 6.0% 16.57 7
9 1 SKY SONG 5.5% 18.09 3
10 12 KING INVINCIBLE 4.6% 21.51 6
11 4 COLOURFUL PRINCE 4.4% 22.80 1
12 10 PHILOS 2.0% 51.24 10
SPICY SPANGLEUNIVERSAL BLAZESUPER FAST DRAGONLEAN MASTEROVERSUBSCRIBEDCIRCUIT SEVENSERGEANT PEPPERG ONE EXCELLENTSKY SONGKING INVINCIBLECOLOURFUL PRINCE — wonPHILOS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 83.5

PLACE

1 49.5

4 28

6 23

QUINELLA

4,6 330.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 217.5

1,6 189.5

4,6 114

FORECAST

4,6 667

TIERCE

4,6,1 10,166

TRIO

1,4,6 1,810

FIRST 4

1,4,5,6 1,606

QUARTET

4,6,1,5 42,766

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

4/4 2,270

4/6 300