Happy Valley · 2024-03-20 · 14:19
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2024-03-20 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SAMARKAND, ridden by C L Chau and trained by D A Hayes, won by HD, with LOVERO second and HAMERON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite LOVERO finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | SAMARKAND Closed strongly CP/TT 1.41.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · D A Hayes | C L Chau | D A Hayes | 6 | 8.0 | HD |
| 2 | 6 | LOVERO TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 12 | 3.4 | HD |
| 3 | 1 | HAMERON Closed strongly B-/TT L Ferraris · K W Lui | L Ferraris | K W Lui | 5 | 8.6 | N |
| 4 | 4 | EIGHTEEN PALMS B/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 8 | 12.0 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | IVY LEAGUE Closed strongly SR/XB/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte | K De Melo | D J Whyte | 10 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | SO WE JOY H/TT A Atzeni · C W Chang | A Atzeni | C W Chang | 2 | 17.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | JUNE PLANET Closed strongly TT K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 7 | 6.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 11 | GLORIOUS JOURNEY Closed strongly TT1 M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 9 | 42.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 7 | AMAZING DUCK Led early CP M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 3 | 6.3 | 2-1/4 |
| 10 | 10 | AESTHETICISM Closed strongly B H Bentley · P C Ng | H Bentley | P C Ng | 11 | 18.0 | 3 |
| 11 | 3 | GRATEFUL HEART B-/TT L Hewitson · W Y So | L Hewitson | W Y So | 1 | 33.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | SOLAR GOGO B1 B Thompson · D J Hall | B Thompson | D J Hall | 4 | 45.0 | 4-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | LOVERO | 18.0% | 5.56 | 2 |
| 2 | 7 | AMAZING DUCK | 13.2% | 7.57 | 9 |
| 3 | 2 | SO WE JOY | 10.0% | 9.97 | 6 |
| 4 | 8 | SAMARKAND | 9.7% | 10.32 | 1 |
| 5 | 4 | EIGHTEEN PALMS | 9.6% | 10.37 | 4 |
| 6 | 1 | HAMERON | 8.9% | 11.23 | 3 |
| 7 | 5 | JUNE PLANET | 8.0% | 12.44 | 7 |
| 8 | 10 | AESTHETICISM | 5.9% | 17.05 | 10 |
| 9 | 11 | GLORIOUS JOURNEY | 5.8% | 17.21 | 8 |
| 10 | 9 | IVY LEAGUE | 4.8% | 20.90 | 5 |
| 11 | 3 | GRATEFUL HEART | 4.3% | 23.52 | 11 |
| 12 | 12 | SOLAR GOGO | 1.8% | 56.20 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 80
PLACE
1 28
6 17
8 24.5
QUINELLA
6,8 143
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 71
1,8 115.5
6,8 56.5
FORECAST
8,6 346
TIERCE
8,6,1 2,769
TRIO
1,6,8 437
FIRST 4
1,4,6,8 705
QUARTET
8,6,1,4 17,505
All pools (1 more)
7TH DOUBLE
12/6 132.5
12/8 1,244