Happy Valley · 2024-03-20 · 12:12
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-03-20 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HIGH PERCENTAGE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by T P Yung, won by 2-1/4, with GOLDEN LINK second and EXUBERANT third. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | HIGH PERCENTAGE V-/TT 1.10.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 3 | 2.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 10 | GOLDEN LINK K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 12 | 26.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 3 | EXUBERANT B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 4 | 16.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | HERO STAR TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 2 | 6.3 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 9 | TATTENHAM CP1 A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 1 | 7.7 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | TELECOM SPEED Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 5 | 8.3 | 4 |
| 7 | 8 | SPEEDY CHARIOT SR-/B1/TT M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 6 | 14.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | BRAVO WARRIOR TT B Thompson · W Y So | B Thompson | W Y So | 10 | 164.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 7 | FALCON COURT TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 11 | 61.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 2 | SCOTCH TYCOON B L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 9 | 42.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 5 | MOLLY'S WITNESS P1/TT A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 7 | 65.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 4 | GLORY CLOUD TT H Bentley · C Fownes | H Bentley | C Fownes | 8 | 5.4 | 9 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | TATTENHAM | 25.9% | 3.85 | 5 |
| 2 | 11 | HIGH PERCENTAGE | 21.2% | 4.71 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | TELECOM SPEED | 9.8% | 10.19 | 6 |
| 4 | 3 | EXUBERANT | 9.1% | 10.99 | 3 |
| 5 | 4 | GLORY CLOUD | 9.1% | 11.00 | 12 |
| 6 | 12 | HERO STAR | 7.1% | 14.14 | 4 |
| 7 | 8 | SPEEDY CHARIOT | 3.9% | 25.44 | 7 |
| 8 | 2 | SCOTCH TYCOON | 3.8% | 26.18 | 10 |
| 9 | 10 | GOLDEN LINK | 3.8% | 26.59 | 2 |
| 10 | 7 | FALCON COURT | 2.9% | 34.87 | 9 |
| 11 | 5 | MOLLY'S WITNESS | 2.3% | 43.13 | 11 |
| 12 | 6 | BRAVO WARRIOR | 1.0% | 95.32 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 25.5
PLACE
3 33.5
10 60
11 13.5
QUINELLA
10,11 296
QUINELLA PLACE
3,10 397
3,11 69.5
10,11 100
FORECAST
11,10 458
TIERCE
11,10,3 3,780
TRIO
3,10,11 1,089
FIRST 4
3,10,11,12 1,307
QUARTET
11,10,3,12 22,069
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
8/10 270.5
8/11 132.5