Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2024-03-20 · 13:12

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2024-03-20 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. RED MAJESTY, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D A Hayes, won by 3/4, with KASA PAPA second and NORTHERN BEAST third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite GALLANT VALOUR finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.40.09
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 RED MAJESTY Closed strongly B/TT 1.40.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D A Hayes 12 13.0 3/4
2 7 KASA PAPA Closed strongly TT C L Chau · T P Yung 6 6.0 3/4
3 12 NORTHERN BEAST Closed strongly M F Poon · D J Hall 5 12.0 2
4 8 CONCERTO XB/CP1/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 1 10.0 2-1/4
5 5 ALL RICHES Led early CP/TT1 K C Leung · P F Yiu 4 6.3 3-1/4
6 3 GALLANT VALOUR B/TT Z Purton · J Richards 3 2.2 3-1/2
7 6 INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly XB B Avdulla · C Fownes 10 16.0 3-1/2
8 9 DUBLIN STAR V/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 2 20.0 5
9 11 SUNNY SHINES B- A Atzeni · P C Ng 7 123.0 6
10 10 LEGION OF MERIT Closed strongly B/TT H Bentley · W Y So 11 41.0 7-1/2
11 1 LOYAL BABY TT Y L Chung · W K Mo 8 51.0 15-3/4
12 4 SUPER BABY B/TT E C W Wong · M Newnham 9 38.0 20-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RED MAJESTY2. KASA PAPA+0.75L3. NORTHERN BEAST+2L4. CONCERTO+2.25L5. ALL RICHES+3.25L6. GALLANT VALOUR+3.5L7. INVINCIBLE MISSILE+3.5L8. DUBLIN STAR+5L9. SUNNY SHINES+6L10. LEGION OF MERIT+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick GALLANT VALOUR (26.8%) finished 6th — the winner RED MAJESTY was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 GALLANT VALOUR 26.8% 3.73 6
2 5 ALL RICHES 12.7% 7.85 5
3 7 KASA PAPA 12.7% 7.86 2
4 8 CONCERTO 12.3% 8.13 4
5 12 NORTHERN BEAST 7.1% 14.16 3
6 2 RED MAJESTY 6.5% 15.35 1
7 9 DUBLIN STAR 6.2% 16.20 8
8 10 LEGION OF MERIT 5.3% 18.98 10
9 4 SUPER BABY 4.1% 24.56 12
10 6 INVINCIBLE MISSILE 3.9% 25.46 7
11 1 LOYAL BABY 1.8% 54.71 11
12 11 SUNNY SHINES 0.6% 165.20 9
GALLANT VALOURALL RICHESKASA PAPACONCERTONORTHERN BEASTRED MAJESTY — wonDUBLIN STARLEGION OF MERITSUPER BABYINVINCIBLE MISSILELOYAL BABYSUNNY SHINES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 130

PLACE

2 37

7 20

12 32

QUINELLA

2,7 388.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 106

2,12 186.5

7,12 96

FORECAST

2,7 866

TIERCE

2,7,12 7,962

TRIO

2,7,12 1,311

FIRST 4

2,7,8,12 2,044

QUARTET

2,7,12,8 51,499

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

1/2 901

1/7 61.5