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Happy Valley · 2024-03-27 · 18:41

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.41.19
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 UNITED ENDEAVORS Closed strongly H/TT 1.41.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · W Y So 9 12.0 N
2 0 GALLANT CROWN B/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes 8 14.0 N
3 0 MR ALADDIN B H Bentley · P C Ng 2 5.1 1/2
4 0 ATOMIC BEAUTY Closed strongly V/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 12 5.9 3/4
5 0 JUMBO LEGEND Closed strongly H/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 3 4.2 1
6 0 WOOD ON FIRE Led early TT H T Mo · C W Chang 1 44.0 1-1/2
7 0 TURTLE AGAIN Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · T P Yung 6 8.2 2
8 0 WINDICATOR FAMILY Closed strongly B A Badel · D J Hall 11 18.0 2-1/4
9 0 TO INFINITY B/TT L Hewitson · J Richards 5 15.0 2-1/2
10 0 WINNING SEVEN Closed strongly B-/XB/TT A Atzeni · D J Whyte 10 75.0 3
11 0 VIVA HUNTER TT K Teetan · K L Man 7 6.9 3-1/2
12 0 FOREMOST TEDDY B/TT B Thompson · C S Shum 4 23.0 3-1/2
— 0 MACH TEN A Hamelin · P F Yiu — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-03-27 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. UNITED ENDEAVORS, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by W Y So, won by N, with GALLANT CROWN second and MR ALADDIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.2 favourite JUMBO LEGEND finished 5th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. UNITED ENDEAVORS—2. GALLANT CROWN+0.05L3. MR ALADDIN+0.5L4. ATOMIC BEAUTY+0.75L5. JUMBO LEGEND+1L6. WOOD ON FIRE+1.5L7. TURTLE AGAIN+2L8. WINDICATOR FAMILY+2.25L9. TO INFINITY+2.5L10. WINNING SEVEN+3L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MR ALADDIN (28.9%) finished 3rd — the winner UNITED ENDEAVORS was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 MR ALADDIN 28.9% 3.46 3
2 0 JUMBO LEGEND 12.2% 8.16 5
3 0 ATOMIC BEAUTY 9.3% 10.79 4
4 0 TO INFINITY 8.9% 11.20 9
5 0 TURTLE AGAIN 8.6% 11.58 7
6 0 VIVA HUNTER 8.4% 11.84 11
7 0 GALLANT CROWN 8.2% 12.13 2
8 0 UNITED ENDEAVORS 7.0% 14.28 1
9 0 WINDICATOR FAMILY 3.2% 31.73 8
10 0 WOOD ON FIRE 1.9% 53.58 6
11 0 WINNING SEVEN 1.7% 57.90 10
12 0 FOREMOST TEDDY 1.6% 61.98 12
MR ALADDINJUMBO LEGENDATOMIC BEAUTYTO INFINITYTURTLE AGAINVIVA HUNTERGALLANT CROWNUNITED ENDEAVORS — wonWINDICATOR FAMILYWOOD ON FIREWINNING SEVENFOREMOST TEDDY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 120.5

PLACE

4 47.5

6 18

12 34

QUINELLA

4,12 797.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 127

4,12 238.5

6,12 88.5

FORECAST

12,4 1,777

TIERCE

12,4,6 8,932

TRIO

4,6,12 1,254

FIRST 4

4,6,7,12 1,201

QUARTET

12,4,6,7 34,234