Happy Valley · 2024-03-27 · 12:12
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-03-27 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WINNING HEART, ridden by H Bentley and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-3/4, with GLORY B second and RUN RUN COOL third. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | WINNING HEART B-/V1/TT 1.10.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · A S Cruz | H Bentley | A S Cruz | 1 | 3.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 7 | GLORY B H/CP1 K De Melo · D J Whyte | K De Melo | D J Whyte | 5 | 66.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 1 | RUN RUN COOL PC H Bowman · F C Lor | H Bowman | F C Lor | 9 | 18.0 | 3 |
| 4 | 8 | LUCKY QUALITY V/TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 7 | 10.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 6 | YODA'S CHOICE CP K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 4 | 6.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 3 | RAGNARR TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 3 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | COLONEL V H T Mo · P F Yiu | H T Mo | P F Yiu | 2 | 8.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 2 | GOLDEN LUCK XB/TT L Hewitson · K L Man | L Hewitson | K L Man | 10 | 6.9 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 5 | YEE CHEONG RAIDER B/TT A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 8 | 16.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 9 | HERCULES B/TT A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 6 | 11.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 12 | ALLOY KING V M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 11 | 42.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 4 | SUPERB WITNESS TT1 A Atzeni · D A Hayes | A Atzeni | D A Hayes | 12 | 41.0 | 8-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | WINNING HEART | 24.6% | 4.07 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | YODA'S CHOICE | 14.1% | 7.09 | 5 |
| 3 | 2 | GOLDEN LUCK | 11.1% | 9.00 | 8 |
| 4 | 1 | RUN RUN COOL | 9.2% | 10.92 | 3 |
| 5 | 9 | HERCULES | 8.1% | 12.41 | 10 |
| 6 | 3 | RAGNARR | 7.5% | 13.26 | 6 |
| 7 | 10 | COLONEL | 7.5% | 13.39 | 7 |
| 8 | 8 | LUCKY QUALITY | 5.3% | 18.94 | 4 |
| 9 | 4 | SUPERB WITNESS | 4.9% | 20.44 | 12 |
| 10 | 5 | YEE CHEONG RAIDER | 3.9% | 25.38 | 9 |
| 11 | 12 | ALLOY KING | 2.3% | 43.82 | 11 |
| 12 | 7 | GLORY B | 1.6% | 63.43 | 2 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 30
PLACE
1 50
7 141
11 14.5
QUINELLA
7,11 999
QUINELLA PLACE
1,7 930.5
1,11 102
7,11 304.5
FORECAST
11,7 1,394
TIERCE
11,7,1 15,774
TRIO
1,7,11 3,217
FIRST 4
1,7,8,11 7,052
QUARTET
11,7,1,8 150,409
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
1/7 723
1/11 159.5