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Happy Valley · 2024-03-27 · 19:11

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 2200m Course A 12 runners

Result

Official · 2.17.91
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SHARPEN BRIGHT Closed strongly CP-/XB- 2.17.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D J Hall 3 4.8 N
2 0 REACH GOAL Closed strongly TT H Bentley · P F Yiu 12 14.0 N
3 0 WINNING STEPS Closed strongly H/PC M F Poon · P C Ng 9 31.0 1-1/4
4 0 PRECISE EXPRESS Closed strongly H A Atzeni · P F Yiu 5 34.0 1-1/4
5 0 PEGASUS GENERAL V H Bowman · K H Ting 2 5.2 2
6 0 FLYING SILVER Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · C S Shum 8 15.0 2-3/4
7 0 ROMANTIC FANTASY Led early B/TT A Badel · C S Shum 6 8.6 3-1/2
8 0 PALACE PAL V Z Purton · D J Hall 4 3.1 3-1/2
9 0 RUNNING AHEAD C L Chau · T P Yung 1 13.0 4-3/4
10 0 LITTLE FAIRY V A Hamelin · P F Yiu 11 31.0 5-1/4
11 0 JUBILATION Closed strongly V M L Yeung · W Y So 10 17.0 6-3/4
12 0 SUNNY BABY L Hewitson · D A Hayes 7 41.0 9
— 0 WONDER YEARS K De Melo · D J Whyte — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2024-03-27 was Class 4 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. SHARPEN BRIGHT, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D J Hall, won by N, with REACH GOAL second and WINNING STEPS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite PALACE PAL finished 8th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SHARPEN BRIGHT—2. REACH GOAL+0.05L3. WINNING STEPS+1.25L4. PRECISE EXPRESS+1.25L5. PEGASUS GENERAL+2L6. FLYING SILVER+2.75L7. ROMANTIC FANTASY+3.5L8. PALACE PAL+3.5L9. RUNNING AHEAD+4.75L10. LITTLE FAIRY+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick PALACE PAL (21.0%) finished 8th — the winner SHARPEN BRIGHT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 PALACE PAL 21.0% 4.75 8
2 0 SHARPEN BRIGHT 18.0% 5.56 1
3 0 PEGASUS GENERAL 13.1% 7.65 5
4 0 ROMANTIC FANTASY 12.2% 8.20 7
5 0 LITTLE FAIRY 8.5% 11.79 10
6 0 SUNNY BABY 5.1% 19.47 12
7 0 PRECISE EXPRESS 5.0% 19.81 4
8 0 RUNNING AHEAD 4.4% 22.55 9
9 0 REACH GOAL 4.1% 24.61 2
10 0 FLYING SILVER 3.8% 26.21 6
11 0 WINNING STEPS 2.9% 34.76 3
12 0 JUBILATION 1.9% 54.05 11
PALACE PALSHARPEN BRIGHT — wonPEGASUS GENERALROMANTIC FANTASYLITTLE FAIRYSUNNY BABYPRECISE EXPRESSRUNNING AHEADREACH GOALFLYING SILVERWINNING STEPSJUBILATION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 48

PLACE

4 37.5

5 17.5

6 75.5

QUINELLA

4,5 250

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 84.5

4,6 287.5

5,6 225.5

FORECAST

5,4 362

TIERCE

5,4,6 10,026

TRIO

4,5,6 2,437

FIRST 4

3,4,5,6 9,493

QUARTET

5,4,6,3 153,733

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

12/4 257.5

12/5 587