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Happy Valley · 2024-03-27 · 11:12

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 2200m Course A 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2024-03-27 was Class 4 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. SHARPEN BRIGHT, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D J Hall, won by N, with REACH GOAL second and WINNING STEPS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite PALACE PAL finished 8th.

Result

Official · 2.17.91
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 SHARPEN BRIGHT Closed strongly CP-/XB- 2.17.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D J Hall 3 4.8 N
2 4 REACH GOAL Closed strongly TT H Bentley · P F Yiu 12 14.0 N
3 6 WINNING STEPS Closed strongly H/PC M F Poon · P C Ng 9 31.0 1-1/4
4 3 PRECISE EXPRESS Closed strongly H A Atzeni · P F Yiu 5 34.0 1-1/4
5 2 PEGASUS GENERAL V H Bowman · K H Ting 2 5.2 2
6 12 FLYING SILVER Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · C S Shum 8 15.0 2-3/4
7 1 ROMANTIC FANTASY Led early B/TT A Badel · C S Shum 6 8.6 3-1/2
8 8 PALACE PAL V Z Purton · D J Hall 4 3.1 3-1/2
9 9 RUNNING AHEAD C L Chau · T P Yung 1 13.0 4-3/4
10 7 LITTLE FAIRY V A Hamelin · P F Yiu 11 31.0 5-1/4
11 10 JUBILATION Closed strongly V M L Yeung · W Y So 10 17.0 6-3/4
12 11 SUNNY BABY L Hewitson · D A Hayes 7 41.0 9
0 WONDER YEARS K De Melo · D J Whyte

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SHARPEN BRIGHT2. REACH GOAL+0.05L3. WINNING STEPS+1.25L4. PRECISE EXPRESS+1.25L5. PEGASUS GENERAL+2L6. FLYING SILVER+2.75L7. ROMANTIC FANTASY+3.5L8. PALACE PAL+3.5L9. RUNNING AHEAD+4.75L10. LITTLE FAIRY+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick PALACE PAL (21.0%) finished 8th — the winner SHARPEN BRIGHT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 PALACE PAL 21.0% 4.75 8
2 5 SHARPEN BRIGHT 18.0% 5.56 1
3 2 PEGASUS GENERAL 13.1% 7.65 5
4 1 ROMANTIC FANTASY 12.2% 8.20 7
5 7 LITTLE FAIRY 8.5% 11.79 10
6 11 SUNNY BABY 5.1% 19.47 12
7 3 PRECISE EXPRESS 5.0% 19.81 4
8 9 RUNNING AHEAD 4.4% 22.55 9
9 4 REACH GOAL 4.1% 24.61 2
10 12 FLYING SILVER 3.8% 26.21 6
11 6 WINNING STEPS 2.9% 34.76 3
12 10 JUBILATION 1.9% 54.05 11
PALACE PALSHARPEN BRIGHT — wonPEGASUS GENERALROMANTIC FANTASYLITTLE FAIRYSUNNY BABYPRECISE EXPRESSRUNNING AHEADREACH GOALFLYING SILVERWINNING STEPSJUBILATION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 48

PLACE

4 37.5

5 17.5

6 75.5

QUINELLA

4,5 250

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 84.5

4,6 287.5

5,6 225.5

FORECAST

5,4 362

TIERCE

5,4,6 10,026

TRIO

4,5,6 2,437

FIRST 4

3,4,5,6 9,493

QUARTET

5,4,6,3 153,733

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

12/4 257.5

12/5 587