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Happy Valley · 2024-03-27 · 12:42

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2024-03-27 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SNOWALOT, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1/2, with CAPITAL LEGEND second and TURIN WARRIOR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite CAPITAL LEGEND finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.40.35
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 SNOWALOT Closed strongly B 1.40.35 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes 11 7.0 1/2
2 3 CAPITAL LEGEND Closed strongly TT H Bowman · C Fownes 5 4.0 1/2
3 7 TURIN WARRIOR Closed strongly B/XB K Teetan · K L Man 12 14.0 1-1/2
4 6 HARRY'S HERO Closed strongly H/XB M F Poon · P F Yiu 8 37.0 1-1/2
5 4 DRAGON STAR V/XB E C W Wong · P C Ng 9 4.2 1-3/4
6 11 PACKING WISHER B1/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 6 69.0 3-1/2
7 2 COMET SPLENDIDO TT B Thompson · C S Shum 2 10.0 4-1/2
8 12 YEABOI B/TT L Hewitson · C H Yip 4 13.0 6
9 8 KILINDINI Led early XB/TT L Ferraris · W K Mo 3 6.5 6-1/2
10 9 CALIFORNIA ICON B-/V1/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 1 35.0 9-1/4
11 10 HAPPY FEELING CP/TT A Hamelin · J Richards 7 74.0 12
12 1 AMAZING TEENS H/TT A Badel · J Size 10 9.5 14-3/4
0 PO ON WAY M Chadwick · K H Ting

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SNOWALOT2. CAPITAL LEGEND+0.5L3. TURIN WARRIOR+1.5L4. HARRY'S HERO+1.5L5. DRAGON STAR+1.75L6. PACKING WISHER+3.5L7. COMET SPLENDIDO+4.5L8. YEABOI+6L9. KILINDINI+6.5L10. CALIFORNIA ICON+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick CAPITAL LEGEND (20.8%) finished 2nd — the winner SNOWALOT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 CAPITAL LEGEND 20.8% 4.81 2
2 5 SNOWALOT 17.0% 5.88 1
3 4 DRAGON STAR 11.9% 8.39 5
4 8 KILINDINI 10.4% 9.66 9
5 1 AMAZING TEENS 10.2% 9.84 12
6 12 YEABOI 8.8% 11.35 8
7 7 TURIN WARRIOR 8.1% 12.28 3
8 6 HARRY'S HERO 4.8% 20.66 4
9 2 COMET SPLENDIDO 3.3% 30.24 7
10 9 CALIFORNIA ICON 2.3% 42.77 10
11 10 HAPPY FEELING 1.3% 75.23 11
12 11 PACKING WISHER 1.0% 99.45 6
CAPITAL LEGENDSNOWALOT — wonDRAGON STARKILINDINIAMAZING TEENSYEABOITURIN WARRIORHARRY'S HEROCOMET SPLENDIDOCALIFORNIA ICONHAPPY FEELINGPACKING WISHER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 70

PLACE

3 18

5 26

7 35.5

QUINELLA

3,5 153.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 59

3,7 105.5

5,7 125.5

FORECAST

5,3 342

TIERCE

5,3,7 2,396

TRIO

3,5,7 395

FIRST 4

3,5,6,7 2,573

QUARTET

5,3,7,6 59,365

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

1/11/3 91

1/11/5 1,720

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,7,11/3,5,7 300,933

4TH DOUBLE

11/3 15.5

11/5 267