Sha Tin · 2024-04-07 · 19:58
Race 10
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-07 was Class 3 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. EIGHTEEN CARAT, ridden by A Badel and trained by C S Shum, won by 1/2, with UNBELIEVABLE second and ILLUMINOUS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite ILLUMINOUS finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | EIGHTEEN CARAT Closed strongly XB-/B 2.02.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 11 | 8.8 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 1 | UNBELIEVABLE Led early K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 4 | 5.8 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | ILLUMINOUS Closed strongly V K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 3 | 2.9 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET Closed strongly H/PC/XB M Chadwick · P C Ng | M Chadwick | P C Ng | 2 | 6.8 | 4 |
| 5 | 7 | ROMANTIC CHARM V/TT B Avdulla · C S Shum | B Avdulla | C S Shum | 1 | 6.6 | 4-1/2 |
| 6 | 4 | AWESOME FLUKE Closed strongly TT H Bentley · C Fownes | H Bentley | C Fownes | 7 | 12.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 11 | KIMBERLEY B/TT A Atzeni · J Richards | A Atzeni | J Richards | 10 | 19.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | INTREPID WINNER B K De Melo · C W Chang | K De Melo | C W Chang | 6 | 16.0 | 9 |
| 9 | 5 | LOOKING GREAT TT M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 5 | 47.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 10 | 2 | BRAVEHEARTS Closed strongly XB-/TT Y L Chung · J Richards | Y L Chung | J Richards | 9 | 47.0 | 14-1/4 |
| 11 | 8 | NICHOLSON RETURNS B L Hewitson · D J Hall | L Hewitson | D J Hall | 8 | 19.0 | 19-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | ILLUMINOUS | 19.3% | 5.19 | 3 |
| 2 | 9 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET | 14.2% | 7.04 | 4 |
| 3 | 7 | ROMANTIC CHARM | 13.9% | 7.18 | 5 |
| 4 | 11 | KIMBERLEY | 10.2% | 9.78 | 7 |
| 5 | 10 | EIGHTEEN CARAT | 8.5% | 11.82 | 1 |
| 6 | 1 | UNBELIEVABLE | 6.9% | 14.53 | 2 |
| 7 | 8 | NICHOLSON RETURNS | 6.7% | 14.96 | 11 |
| 8 | 6 | INTREPID WINNER | 6.6% | 15.14 | 8 |
| 9 | 4 | AWESOME FLUKE | 5.0% | 20.16 | 6 |
| 10 | 5 | LOOKING GREAT | 4.9% | 20.37 | 9 |
| 11 | 2 | BRAVEHEARTS | 3.9% | 25.93 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 88
PLACE
1 20
3 14.5
10 29.5
QUINELLA
1,10 307
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 35
1,10 114
3,10 57.5
FORECAST
10,1 761
TIERCE
10,1,3 2,556
TRIO
1,3,10 271
FIRST 4
1,3,9,10 248
QUARTET
10,1,3,9 9,335
All pools (4 more)
2ND TREBLE
3/7/1 124
3/7/10 1,382
5TH DOUBLE TRIO
2,7,14/1,3,10 6,505
9TH DOUBLE
7/1 17.5
7/10 240.5
SIX UP
1/4/1/3/7/10 60,833
1,4/1,4/1,8/2,3/2,7/1,10 1,494
2 [H Bowman] —
6 [A S Cruz] —