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Sha Tin · 2024-04-07 · 13:16

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 2000m Course B+2 13 runners

Result

Official · 2.01.07
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 WINNING STEPS Closed strongly H/PC 2.01.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · P C Ng 5 12.0 3/4
2 14 LEGION OF MERIT Closed strongly B/TT B Thompson · W Y So 1 26.0 3/4
3 7 CHATEAU LE PECHE Closed strongly B M L Yeung · K H Ting 4 45.0 1-1/4
4 5 SHARPEN BRIGHT Closed strongly K Teetan · D J Hall 12 5.2 1-3/4
5 4 SATIRICAL GLORY H H Bowman · D A Hayes 3 4.9 3-1/2
6 3 DARCI JOY Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · P F Yiu 9 4.9 4-1/4
7 1 ESCAPE ROUTE H A Badel · J Size 6 8.8 4-3/4
8 9 ME TIME Closed strongly SR/TT A Atzeni · D J Whyte 8 9.8 5-3/4
9 13 FLYING SILVER Closed strongly TT Y L Chung · C S Shum 10 30.0 8-1/2
10 12 SUNNY BABY Closed strongly M Chadwick · D A Hayes 13 99.0 13-1/2
11 11 FRUITY WARRIOR B/TT H Bentley · C Fownes 2 7.5 13-3/4
12 2 SOLAR GOGO B K De Melo · D J Hall 7 74.0 16-3/4
13 6 SPECIAL HEDGE Led early B/TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 11 14.0 17
— 8 MANAGEMENT FOLKS B Avdulla · D J Hall — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-07 was Class 4 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. WINNING STEPS, ridden by M F Poon and trained by P C Ng, won by 3/4, with LEGION OF MERIT second and CHATEAU LE PECHE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.9 favourite SATIRICAL GLORY finished 5th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINNING STEPS—2. LEGION OF MERIT+0.75L3. CHATEAU LE PECHE+1.25L4. SHARPEN BRIGHT+1.75L5. SATIRICAL GLORY+3.5L6. DARCI JOY+4.25L7. ESCAPE ROUTE+4.75L8. ME TIME+5.75L9. FLYING SILVER+8.5L10. SUNNY BABY+13.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SHARPEN BRIGHT (19.3%) finished 4th — the winner WINNING STEPS was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 SHARPEN BRIGHT 19.3% 5.18 4
2 4 SATIRICAL GLORY 18.6% 5.37 5
3 3 DARCI JOY 13.5% 7.39 6
4 11 FRUITY WARRIOR 8.9% 11.28 11
5 1 ESCAPE ROUTE 8.7% 11.50 7
6 10 WINNING STEPS 7.5% 13.37 1
7 13 FLYING SILVER 5.2% 19.34 9
8 14 LEGION OF MERIT 4.1% 24.27 2
9 6 SPECIAL HEDGE 3.8% 26.25 13
10 12 SUNNY BABY 3.6% 27.40 10
11 9 ME TIME 2.8% 35.70 8
12 7 CHATEAU LE PECHE 2.0% 49.56 3
13 2 SOLAR GOGO 2.0% 51.18 12
SHARPEN BRIGHTSATIRICAL GLORYDARCI JOYFRUITY WARRIORESCAPE ROUTEWINNING STEPS — wonFLYING SILVERLEGION OF MERITSPECIAL HEDGESUNNY BABYME TIMECHATEAU LE PECHESOLAR GOGO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 124

PLACE

7 120

10 35

14 63

QUINELLA

10,14 1,458.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,10 622.5

7,14 1,060

10,14 423

FORECAST

10,14 3,161

TIERCE

10,14,7 64,674

TRIO

7,10,14 13,742

FIRST 4

5,7,10,14 12,807

QUARTET

10,14,7,5 414,736

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

7/10 546

7/14 352

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,7,13/7,10,14 2,641,953